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Integrating the fragmented regional and subregional socioeconomic forecasting and analysis: a spatial regional econometric input–output framework

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  • Jae Kim
  • Geoffrey Hewings

Abstract

This study presents an integrated socioeconomic forecasting and analysis framework: a spatial regional econometric input–output model and its application to the Chicago metropolitan area. The new framework is designed to overcome some limitations of existing models, particularly (1) limited consideration of population–employment interactions and (2) dominance of top-down approach to vertical integration of regional and subregional variables. It captures local and lower level conditions and their effects on macroeconomic variables by using a modified disequilibrium adjustment model that incorporates subregional dynamics into a regional econometric input–output model in a reciprocal, interactive manner, as opposed to a top-down allocation process. The framework also considers both region-wide and subregional level population–employment interactions more systematically. It is demonstrated that the present model can support socioeconomic forecasting and a broad range of analyses, including the examinations of the macroeconomic impacts of local actions. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2012

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  • Jae Kim & Geoffrey Hewings, 2012. "Integrating the fragmented regional and subregional socioeconomic forecasting and analysis: a spatial regional econometric input–output framework," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 49(2), pages 485-513, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:anresc:v:49:y:2012:i:2:p:485-513
    DOI: 10.1007/s00168-011-0468-y
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    Cited by:

    1. L. I. Vlasyuk, 2017. "Strategic planning and forecasting system in the Russian Federation: a regional projection," Russian Journal of Industrial Economics, MISIS, vol. 10(2).
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    3. Darian McBain & Ali Alsamawi, 2014. "Quantitative accounting for social economic indicators," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(3), pages 193-202, August.
    4. Trond G. Husby & Elco E. Koks, 2017. "Household migration in disaster impact analysis: incorporating behavioural responses to risk," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 87(1), pages 287-305, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    C53; R12; R15;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • R15 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Econometric and Input-Output Models; Other Methods

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