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A data-driven spatially-specific vaccine allocation framework for COVID-19

Author

Listed:
  • Zhaofu Hong

    (Northwestern Polytechnical University)

  • Yingjie Li

    (Central South University
    Lanzhou University)

  • Yeming Gong

    (EMLYON Business School)

  • Wanying Chen

    (Zhejiang Gongshang University)

Abstract

Although coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines have been introduced, their allocation is a challenging problem. We propose a data-driven, spatially-specific vaccine allocation framework that aims to minimize the number of COVID-19-related deaths or infections. The framework combines a regional risk-level classification model solved by a self-organizing map neural network, a spatially-specific disease progression model, and a vaccine allocation model that considers vaccine production capacity. We use data obtained from Wuhan and 35 other cities in China from January 26 to February 11, 2020, to avoid the effects of intervention. Our results suggest that, in region-wise distribution of vaccines, they should be allocated first to the source region of the outbreak and then to the other regions in order of decreasing risk whether the outcome measure is the number of deaths or infections. This spatially-specific vaccine allocation policy significantly outperforms some current allocation policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhaofu Hong & Yingjie Li & Yeming Gong & Wanying Chen, 2024. "A data-driven spatially-specific vaccine allocation framework for COVID-19," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 339(1), pages 203-226, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:339:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1007_s10479-022-05037-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s10479-022-05037-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ozgur Araz & Alison Galvani & Lauren Meyers, 2012. "Geographic prioritization of distributing pandemic influenza vaccines," Health Care Management Science, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 175-187, September.
    2. Min, Hokey & Jeung Ko, Hyun & Seong Ko, Chang, 2006. "A genetic algorithm approach to developing the multi-echelon reverse logistics network for product returns," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 56-69, January.
    3. Nidhi Subbaraman, 2020. "Who gets a COVID vaccine first? Access plans are taking shape," Nature, Nature, vol. 585(7826), pages 492-493, September.
    4. Francesc Aràndiga & Antonio Baeza & Isabel Cordero-Carrión & Rosa Donat & M. Carmen Martí & Pep Mulet & Dionisio F. Yáñez, 2020. "A Spatial-Temporal Model for the Evolution of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Spain Including Mobility," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(10), pages 1-19, October.
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