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Optimal filter rules for selling stocks in the emerging stock markets

Author

Listed:
  • Sabri Boubaker

    (EM Normandie Business School
    Vietnam National University)

  • Xuyuan Han

    (Postdoctoral Research Center, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China)

  • Zhenya Liu

    (Renmin University of China
    CERGAM, AixMarseille University)

  • Yaosong Zhan

    (Renmin University of China)

Abstract

With the application of the optimal stopping techniques, this paper proposes a filter rule for investors in emerging stock markets. In a bull market, once the stock price falls down to the optimal filter size, investors should sell the stock to avoid massive losses. We show that the optimal filter size is a function of the historical highest price, the weights of the future returns and the current drawdown in the investor’s utility function, the characteristics of the underlying stochastic price process, and the discount rate. Out-of-sample tests verify that this filter rule is valid, and the selling signals generated by the filter rule are at the beginning of the downtrend in the most emerging stock markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Sabri Boubaker & Xuyuan Han & Zhenya Liu & Yaosong Zhan, 2023. "Optimal filter rules for selling stocks in the emerging stock markets," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 330(1), pages 211-242, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:330:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1007_s10479-021-04381-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s10479-021-04381-w
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhenya Liu & Yuhao Mu, 2022. "Optimal Stopping Methods for Investment Decisions: A Literature Review," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-23, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Finance; Filter rule; Optimal stopping; Emerging stock markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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