IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/annopr/v330y2023i1d10.1007_s10479-021-04120-1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Early warning of systemic risk in global banking: eigen-pair R number for financial contagion and market price-based methods

Author

Listed:
  • Sheri Markose

    (University of Essex)

  • Simone Giansante

    (University of Bath)

  • Nicolas A. Eterovic

    (University of Essex)

  • Mateusz Gatkowski

    (University of Essex
    European Central Bank)

Abstract

We analyse systemic risk in the core global banking system using a new network-based spectral eigen-pair method, which treats network failure as a dynamical system stability problem. This is compared with market price-based Systemic Risk Indexes (SRIs), viz. Marginal Expected Shortfall (MES), Delta Conditional Value-at-Risk (Delta-CoVaR), and Conditional Capital Shortfall Measure of Systemic Risk (SRISK) in a cross-border setting. Unlike paradoxical market price based risk measures, which underestimate risk during periods of asset price booms, the eigen-pair method based on bilateral balance sheet data gives early-warning of instability in terms of the tipping point that is analogous to the R number in epidemic models. For this regulatory capital thresholds are used. Furthermore, network centrality measures identify systemically important and vulnerable banking systems. Market price-based SRIs are contemporaneous with the crisis and they are found to covary with risk measures like VaR and betas.

Suggested Citation

  • Sheri Markose & Simone Giansante & Nicolas A. Eterovic & Mateusz Gatkowski, 2023. "Early warning of systemic risk in global banking: eigen-pair R number for financial contagion and market price-based methods," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 330(1), pages 691-729, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:330:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1007_s10479-021-04120-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s10479-021-04120-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10479-021-04120-1
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10479-021-04120-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:330:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1007_s10479-021-04120-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.