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Investor-friendly and robust portfolio selection model integrating forecasts for financial tendency and risk-averse

Author

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  • Takashi Hasuike

    (Waseda University)

  • Mukesh Kumar Mehlawat

    (University of Delhi)

Abstract

This paper proposes an investor-friendly random fuzzy portfolio selection model considering both robustness and adjustment of future asset returns derived from investor’s forecasts for financial tendency using a fuzzy inference method. It is important to predict the price or the return of each asset appropriately considering current market trends in portfolio optimization. In this paper, a standard multi-factor model, namely Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT), is introduced as an asset pricing model. In addition, in order to extend standard APT by integrating important rules of current markets trends derived from technical analysis and fundamental analysis, each factor of APT is assumed to be a random fuzzy variable whose mean is adjusted by the fuzzy reasoning method, particularly product–sum-gravity method. Furthermore, it is also important for the investor to reduce the worst case of the total loss in terms of risk-averse. Therefore, worst-case conditional Value-at-Risk, which is a robust programming approach without assuming some specific random distribution, is considered. Since the proposed model is formulated as a biobjective programming problem both minimizing the value of worst-case conditional Value-at-Risk and maximizing the total expected return, it is equivalently transformed into the deterministic nonlinear programming problem using the satisficing trade-off method, and the efficient algorithm to obtain the optimal portfolio is developed. By solving our proposed model, the investor can obtain the risk-averse optimal portfolio with the large total return complying with current market trends.

Suggested Citation

  • Takashi Hasuike & Mukesh Kumar Mehlawat, 2018. "Investor-friendly and robust portfolio selection model integrating forecasts for financial tendency and risk-averse," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 269(1), pages 205-221, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:269:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s10479-017-2458-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s10479-017-2458-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Panos Xidonas & Ralph Steuer & Christis Hassapis, 2020. "Robust portfolio optimization: a categorized bibliographic review," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 292(1), pages 533-552, September.
    2. Alireza Ghahtarani & Ahmed Saif & Alireza Ghasemi, 2022. "Robust portfolio selection problems: a comprehensive review," Operational Research, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 3203-3264, September.
    3. Shi, Yujie & Wang, Liming & Ke, Jian, 2021. "Does the US-China trade war affect co-movements between US and Chinese stock markets?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    4. J Zhang & H Liu, 2024. "Analysis of Co-movement in Asia-Pacific Stock Markets Against the Background of the US-China Trade War," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 29(1), pages 35-69, March.
    5. Alireza Ghahtarani & Ahmed Saif & Alireza Ghasemi, 2021. "Robust Portfolio Selection Problems: A Comprehensive Review," Papers 2103.13806, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.

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