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Türkiye’de Enflasyonun Oluşumu: ARDL Yaklaşımı

Author

Listed:
  • Tuba ŞAHİNOĞLU
  • Kenan ÖZDEN
  • Selim BAŞAR
  • Hayati AKSU

Abstract

Understanding causes of inflation is important for combating inflation phenomenon. In this study, causes of inflation of Turkish economy are investigated. For this purpose, an inflation model based on Triangle Inflation Model is applied by including 1987:01-2008:04 data. According to the long term model results hold by ARDL approach, external price level, wages and output gap have positive impacts on Turkish price level. While wages and external prices have prior effects on inflation, effect of output gap is lagged. When the model is extended by taking into consideration fiscal and monetary variables, a negative relationship appears between budget deficits and price level. Money supply affects price level first positively and then negatively.

Suggested Citation

  • Tuba ŞAHİNOĞLU & Kenan ÖZDEN & Selim BAŞAR & Hayati AKSU, 2010. "Türkiye’de Enflasyonun Oluşumu: ARDL Yaklaşımı," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 2010-1.
    • Handle: RePEc:sos:sosjrn:100102
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    Cited by:

    1. Osman AKGÜL & Abdullah Miraç BÜKEY, 2020. "Türkiye’de Enflasyon ile Asgari Ücretler Arasındaki İlişki ve Ücret-Fiyat Sarmalı," Journal of Social Policy Conferences, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 0(78), pages 257-282, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Triangle Inflation Model; ARDL.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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