Scenario Planning Potential In Bulgarian Ict Sector And Public Administration

Scenario planning has been among the world’s top 25 management tools annually in the last 20 years. Despite its popularity in developed economies for over 40 years, it is rarely used in transition economies. While public administrations of old EU member states and the European Commission itself institutionalize foresight, Bulgaria still only pilots it here and there. The paper explores the conditionalities for scenario planning implementation by companies in the ICT sector and by public administration in Bulgaria. The sectors were chosen because scenario planning is considered to be a managerial method to cope with complexity and both domains are exemplary complex. The paper ranges diffusion channels for scenario planning and argues that its potential in public administration (government) is significantly lower than within three groups of companies (Bulgarian ICT firms with own brands on international markets, foreign ICT firms with R&D centers in Bulgaria and local start-ups that target global markets), relatively the same as other four groups (foreign ICT firms without local R&D centers, ICT insourcing firms, non-ICT companies and ICT business associations) and exceeds only Bulgarian ICT firms that work entirely on domestic market. However it could be effectively used within e-government requirements engineering and pre-commercial procurement.