IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sgh/gosnar/y2018i2p5-28.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Determinanty i implikacje poszerzania strefy euro. Kwestia polska

Author

Listed:
  • Grzegorz W. Kołodko
  • Marta Postuła

Abstract

Abstrahując od Wielkiej Brytanii, która opuszcza Unię Europejską, wyłącznie Dania ma możliwość pozostawania poza obszarem wspólnej waluty europejskiej. Wszystkie pozostałe państwa członkowskie, które dotychczas nie wprowadziły do obiegu euro, mają takie traktatowe prawo i obowiązek. Warunkiem przystąpienia do strefy euro jest spełnienie wszystkich pięciu nominalnych kryteriów konwergencji z Maastricht oraz zgodność ustawodawstwa krajowego z acquis communautaire, czyli porządkiem prawnym obowiązującym w Unii Europejskiej. Szczególne trudności sprawia pretendentom kryterium fiskalne dotyczące maksymalnie dopuszczalnego deficytu budżetowego. Gdy nie jest ono przestrzegane, Komisja Europejska wdraża procedurę nadmiernego deficytu (EDP). Aktualnie procedura ta ma miejsce w przypadku Francji, Hiszpanii i Wielkiej Brytanii. W roku 2015 EDP została zdjęta z Polski, ale nie ma pewności, czy pod koniec dekady nie będzie ponownie nałożona, ze względu na ryzyko ponownego przekroczenia deficytu sektora finansów publicznych w wysokości 3 proc. PKB. W latach 20. XXI wieku można oczekiwać przystąpienia do europejskiej unii walutowej wszystkich krajów, które wciąż jeszcze posługują się swoimi narodowymi walutami, łącznie z Danią, oraz poszerzania UE o nowe państwa członkowskie, które będą poszerzały także strefę euro. Choć nie ma w tej kwestii stuprocentowej pewności, to trzeba przyjąć, że euro przetrwa obecne trudności i wyjdzie z nich wzmocnione. W artykule Autorzy postawili pytanie, czy Polska w najbliższych latach powinna przystąpić do strefy euro, zdając sobie z jednej strony sprawę z jej niedoskonałości, z drugiej zaś widząc pozytywne względy ekonomiczne takiej decyzji. Do weryfikacji empirycznej przedstawionego problemu badawczego wykorzystano metodykę mieszaną - zarówno badań jakościowych, jak i wyniki badań ilościowych.

Suggested Citation

  • Grzegorz W. Kołodko & Marta Postuła, 2018. "Determinanty i implikacje poszerzania strefy euro. Kwestia polska," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 2, pages 5-28.
    • Handle: RePEc:sgh:gosnar:y:2018:i:2:p:5-28
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.journalssystem.com/gna/pdf-100544-32396
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bruno Dallago, 2016. "One Currency, Two Europes:Towards a Dual Eurozone," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 9949, September.
    2. Eswar S. Prasad, 2015. "The Dollar Trap: How the U.S. Dollar Tightened Its Grip on Global Finance," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 10599.
    3. Wim Marneffe & Bas van Aarle & Wouter van der Wielen & Lode Vereeck, 2011. "The Impact of Fiscal Rules on Public Finances in the Euro Area," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 9(3), pages 18-26, October.
    4. Martin Sandbu, 2015. "Europe’s Orphan: The Future of the Euro and the Politics of Debt," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 10564.
    5. repec:ces:ifodic:v:9:y:2011:i:3:p:16752088 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Wim Marneffe & Bas Van Aarle & Wouter van der Wielen & Lode Vereeck, 2011. "The Impact of Fiscal Rules on Public Finances in the Euro Area," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 9(03), pages 18-26, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. G. W. Kolodko & M. Postula., 2018. "Determinants and implications of the Eurozone enlargement," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 7.
    2. Gregorz W. Kolodko & Marta Postula, 2018. "Determinants and Implications of the Eurozone Enlargement," Acta Oeconomica, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 68(4), pages 477-498, December.
    3. Chrysanthakopoulos, Christos & Tagkalakis, Athanasios, 2024. "The medium-term effects of fiscal policy rules," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    4. David Howarth & Lucia Quaglia, 2015. "The political economy of the euro area's sovereign debt crisis: introduction to the special issue of the Review of International Political Economy," Review of International Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(3), pages 457-484, June.
    5. Kukk Merike & Staehr Karsten, 2015. "Enhanced Fiscal Governance in the European Union: The Fiscal Compact," TalTech Journal of European Studies, Sciendo, vol. 5(1), pages 73-92, February.
    6. Falilou Fall & Debra Bloch & Jean-Marc Fournier & Peter Hoeller, 2015. "Prudent debt targets and fiscal frameworks," OECD Economic Policy Papers 15, OECD Publishing.
    7. Fernando Blanco & Pablo Saavedra & Friederike Koehler-Geib & Emilia Skrok, 2020. "Fiscal Rules and Economic Size in Latin America and the Caribbean," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 34417.
    8. Larch, Martin & Orseau, Eloïse & van der Wielen, Wouter, 2021. "Do EU fiscal rules support or hinder counter-cyclical fiscal policy?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    9. Paul Van Rompuy, 2016. "Sub-national Tax Autonomy and Deficits: Empirical Results for 27 OECD Countries," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(7), pages 1248-1259, July.
    10. Heiko T. Burret & Lars P. Feld, 2018. "Vertical effects of fiscal rules: the Swiss experience," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 25(3), pages 673-721, June.
    11. Heiko T. Burret & Lars P. Feld, 2016. "Effects of Fiscal Rules - 85 Years' Experience in Switzerland," CESifo Working Paper Series 6063, CESifo.
    12. Ricci-Risquete, Alejandro & Ramajo, Julián & de Castro, Francisco, 2016. "Do Spanish fiscal regimes follow the euro-area trends? Evidence from Markov-Switching fiscal rules," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 484-494.
    13. Burret, Heiko T. & Feld, Lars P., 2018. "(Un-)intended effects of fiscal rules," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 166-191.
    14. Herrero-Alcalde, Ana & Martín-Román, Javier & Tránchez-Martín, José Manuel & Moral-Arce, Ignacio, 2024. "Fiscal rules to the test: The impact of the Spanish expenditure rule," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    15. Milan Nedeljkovic & Gonzalo Varela & Michele Savini Zangrandi, 2015. "Indonesia Current Account Assessment," World Bank Publications - Reports 22340, The World Bank Group.
    16. Mika Nieminen, 2017. "Patterns of international capital flows and their implications for developing countries," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2017-171, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    17. Barry Eichengreen & Chitu Livia & Arnaud Mehl, 2014. "Stability or upheaval? The currency composition of international reserves in the long run," Globalization Institute Working Papers 201, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    18. Schelkle, Waltraud, 2017. "Hamilton�s Paradox Revisited: Alternative lessons from US history," CEPS Papers 12963, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    19. Kyunghun Kim & Ju Hyun Pyun & Jiyoun An, 2017. "Does Credit Market Integration Amplify the Transmission of Real Business Cycle During Financial Crisis?," 2017 Meeting Papers 1236, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    20. C. Randall Henning, 2019. "Regime Complexity and the Institutions of Crisis and Development Finance," Development and Change, International Institute of Social Studies, vol. 50(1), pages 24-45, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    integracja; euro konwergencja; kryteria z Maastricht; procedura nadmiernego deficytu; dług publiczny;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F45 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • P34 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - Finance
    • P52 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems - - - Comparative Studies of Particular Economies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sgh:gosnar:y:2018:i:2:p:5-28. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Grzegorz Konat (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sgwawpl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.