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Анализ модельного риска использования технологии мультипликаторов при оценке акций российских компаний // Model Risk Analysis of Multiplier Technology Applied at Stock Valuation of Russian Companies

Author

Listed:
  • V. Minasyan B.

    (Higher School of Finance and Management, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)

  • D. Ivko G.

    (Higher School of Finance and Management, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)

  • В. Минасян Б.

    (Высшая школа финансов и менеджмента РАНХ и ГС при Президенте РФ)

  • Д. Ивко Г.

    (Высшая школа финансов и менеджмента РАНХ и ГС при Президенте РФ)

Abstract

This work is a new direction in the authors’ previous study on applying the market multipliers in assessing the value of oil and gas companies. The work is based on the findings of statistical studies of multipliers calculated for the industry, as well as their volatility over a 12-year period — from 2006 to 2017 inclusively, as exemplified by 46 companies from nine sectors of the economy of the Russian Federation. The analysis of the risk measures Value-at-Risk (hereinafter VaR) and Expected Shortfall (hereinafter ES) was conducted by means of volatility calculated in different ways. In particular, the multiplier volatility was introduced by V. B. Minasyan. It was established that for all nine sectors of the Russian economy, calculated with conventional stock volatility statistics (when possible), risk valuation measures VaR and ES led to lower calculated risk values compared to those calculated using multiplier volatility. The results of the study are of interest to evaluators, investors and other interested parties, as it allows to analyze the general behavior of the stock value in Russian companies and to compare the change in indicators of various economic sectors in terms of multiplier technology. Данная работа является новым направлением развития ранее проведенного авторами исследования проблемы, связанной с применением метода рыночных мультипликаторов в оценке ценности компаний нефтегазовой отрасли. Работа основана на выводах статистических исследований мультипликаторов, рассчитанных для отрасли, а также их волатильности за 12-летний период — с 2006 по 2017 г. включительно на примере 46 компаний из девяти отраслей экономики Российской Федерации. Проведен анализ мер риска Value-at-Risk (далее — VaR) и Expected Shortfall (далее — ES), вычисленных с волатильностью, рассчитанной разными способами. В частности, использовалась мультипликаторная волатильность, введенная в обиход В. Б. Минасяном. Установлено, что по всем девяти отраслям экономики РФ оценки мер риска VaR и ES, рассчитанные с помощью обычных статистических данных волатильности акции (когда это возможно), приводили к меньшим расчетным величинам риска по сравнению с теми, что рассчитаны с применением мультипликаторной волатильности. Результаты исследования представляют интерес для оценщиков, инвесторов и других заинтересованных лиц, так как позволяют проанализировать общую картину поведения стоимости акций российских компаний и дают возможность сравнить изменение показателей различных отраслей экономики в рамках использования технологии мультипликаторов.

Suggested Citation

  • V. Minasyan B. & D. Ivko G. & В. Минасян Б. & Д. Ивко Г., 2019. "Анализ модельного риска использования технологии мультипликаторов при оценке акций российских компаний // Model Risk Analysis of Multiplier Technology Applied at Stock Valuation of Russian Companies," Финансы: теория и практика/Finance: Theory and Practice // Finance: Theory and Practice, ФГОБУВО Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации // Financial University under The Government of Russian Federation, vol. 23(6), pages 91-116.
  • Handle: RePEc:scn:financ:y:2019:i:6:p:91-116
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    G11; G12; G17; G32; G11; G12; G17; G32; company valuation; multiplier P/E; multiplier P/B; stock value; stock volatility; multiplier volatility; risk measure VaR; risk measure ES; оценка ценности компаний; мультипликатор P/E; мультипликатор P/B; ценность акции; волатильность акции; мультипликаторная волатильность; мера риска VaR; мера риска ES;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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