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Оценка влияния реального сектора и непроизводственных сфер на динамику индекса деловой активности // Impact Assessment of the Real Sector and Non-Productive Spheres on the Dynamics of the Business Activity Index

Author

Listed:
  • A. Frenkel A.

    (Institute of Economics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow)

  • B. Tikhomirov I.

    (Institute of Economics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow)

  • N. Volkova N.

    (Institute of Economics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow)

  • A. Surkov A.

    (Institute of Economics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow)

  • А. Френкель А.

    (Институт экономики РАН, Москва)

  • Б. Тихомиров И.

    (Институт экономики РАН, Москва)

  • Н. Волкова Н.

    (Институт экономики РАН, Москва)

  • А. Сурков А.

    (Институт экономики РАН, Москва)

Abstract

The article is devoted to the impact assessment of the real sector and other factors of economic growth (characteristics of the financial sector, paid services and household incomes) on the dynamics of the business activity index, an integral indicator characterizing the state and trends of the country’s macroeconomic development. The purpose of the article is to justify the need and highlight the feasibility for developing new aggregated business activity indexes that include a wider range of the national economy areas than the output index of goods and services for the Rosstat basic business lines. The authors have used the design method for integral estimates of macroeconomic dynamics, regression analysis, and a probabilistic approach (the method of pairwise preferences) to determine the weighing coefficients of the basic indicators. The work has resulted in time series of business activity indices (in tables and graphs), based on the method proposed by the authors. The new index of business activity suggests a more objective assessment of the state and trends of socio-economic development compared to the same Rosstat index. This index can help to improve the macroeconomic forecasting efficiency and lay the groundwork for more grounded management decisions. Статья посвящена оценке влияния показателей реального сектора и других факторов экономического роста (характеристик финансового сектора, сферы платных услуг и доходов населения) на динамику индекса деловой активности — интегрального показателя, характеризующего состояние и тренды макроэкономического развития страны. Цель публикации — обосновать необходимость и проиллюстрировать практическую возможность формирования новых агрегированных индексов деловой активности, учитывающих более широкий круг сфер национального хозяйства по сравнению с индексами выпуска товаров и услуг по базовым видам экономической деятельности Росстата. В исследовании используются методы построения интегральных оценок макроэкономической динамики, регрессионного анализа, а также вероятностный подход (метод попарных предпочтений) для определения весовых коэффициентов базовых показателей. Результатом работы стали динамические ряды индексов деловой активности (в табличной и графической формах), построенные на основе разработанного авторами метода. Предложенный новый индекс деловой активности позволяет более объективно оценить состояние и тренды социально-экономического развития по сравнению с аналогичным индексом Росстата, что может способствовать повышению эффективности макроэкономического прогнозирования и созданию предпосылок для принятия более обоснованных управленческих решений.

Suggested Citation

  • A. Frenkel A. & B. Tikhomirov I. & N. Volkova N. & A. Surkov A. & А. Френкель А. & Б. Тихомиров И. & Н. Волкова Н. & А. Сурков А., 2019. "Оценка влияния реального сектора и непроизводственных сфер на динамику индекса деловой активности // Impact Assessment of the Real Sector and Non-Productive Spheres on the Dynamics of the Business Act," Финансы: теория и практика/Finance: Theory and Practice // Finance: Theory and Practice, ФГОБУВО Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации // Financial University under The Government of Russian Federation, vol. 23(2), pages 117-133.
  • Handle: RePEc:scn:financ:y:2019:i:2:p:117-133
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. de Guimarães e Souza, Gustavo José & de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & de Andrade, Joaquim Pinto, 2016. "Inflation targeting on output growth: A pulse dummy analysis of dynamic macroeconomic panel data," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 145-169.
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