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Некоторые Проблемы Теории Экономического Роста // Some Problems Of The Economic Growth Theory

Author

Listed:
  • O. Sukharev S.

    (the Russian Academy of Sciences)

  • О. Сухарев С.

    (Российская академия наук)

Abstract

The subject of the study is the resource approach to the economic growth policy including theoretical aspects of the economic growth model. A recession is usually replaced by the growth dynamics, and the economy’s recovery from the recession requires justification of government policy measures that not only help overcome the crisis, but also lead the economy to sustainable growth at a given pace. The study is concerned with the assessment of aggregate type models within the framework of the resource-factor approach and the impact of investments and consumer spendings on the economic growth rate at the theoretical (model) and empirical levels of analysis. The modern technological level and the type of “technological function” ensure not only the ability of the economy to grow in the current regime but also provide the basis for long-term growth prospects. The technological choice determines the extensive or intensive types of economic growth. The relationship between the rates of creating a new resource and diversion of an existing one to ensure the growth has been determined. The more intensive is the diversion of the resource from available facilities as well as the higher is the interest rate, the lower are the opportunities for creating a new resource and more modest are growth opportunities through the development of a new resource. It is shown that the change in the technological level to ensure the growth of the economic system requires a greater change in consumer spendings. Concerning the economic policy of investment promotion in Russia, it is shown that in the first phase of the recovery, it is advisable not so much to increase the amount of investments as stimulate aggregate consumption and restore the income level. Therefore, the consumption crisis must be eliminated, and since economic growth can occur not through investments (as it was in Russia before the 2015 crisis), it is necessary to seek a growth policy through investments considering their impact on the technological parameters of the economic system. Besides, the increase in the savings rate is not an end in itself for the establishment of the economic growth policy, it is, rather, a resultant parameter that should be taken as such when making macroeconomic decisions. Предметом исследования стал ресурсный подход к организации экономического роста - теоретические аспекты модели роста экономики. Ростовая динамика обычно сменяет рецессию, а выход экономики из рецессии требует обоснования мероприятий правительственной политики, способствующих не только преодолению кризиса, но и выводу экономики на траекторию устойчивого роста заданного темпа. Исследование касается оценки моделей агрегатного типа в рамках применяемого ресурсно-факторного подхода, а также влияния инвестиций и потребительских расходов на темп экономического роста на теоретическом (модельном) и эмпирическом уровне анализа. Современный уровень технологичности и вид «технологической функции» обеспечивают не только способность роста экономики в текущем режиме, но и долгосрочные перспективы роста. Технологический выбор предопределяет экстенсивный или интенсивный тип экономического роста. Определено, как связаны скорости создания нового и отвлечения имеющегося ресурса для обеспечения роста. Чем интенсивнее идет отвлечение ресурса от имеющихся возможностей либо заимствование, а также чем выше процентная ставка, тем ниже возможности по созданию нового ресурса и скромны возможности роста за счет освоения нового ресурса. Показано, что изменение технологического уровня для роста экономической системы требует большего изменения потребительских расходов. Относительно экономической политики стимулирования инвестиций в России показано, что на первой фазе выхода из рецессии потребуется не столько наращение величины инвестиций, сколько стимулирование совокупного потребления и восстановление уровня доходов граждан. Поэтому кризис потребления требует элиминации. А с учетом того, что компонента валового потребления занимает самую большую долю в структуре ВВП РФ, стимулирование потребления через смягчение денежно-кредитной и бюджетной политики с мерами противодействия инфляции на уровне роста затрат и экономической структуры (регулирование естественных монополий) позволит сложить первую фазу политики экономического роста в России. Экономический рост России перед кризисом 2015 г. происходил не за счет инвестиций, а за счет потребительских, правительственных расходов и чистого экспорта. Теперь нужно искать новые факторы роста за счет инвестиций, рассматривая их влияние на технологические параметры экономики. Кроме того, повышение нормы накопления не является самоцелью для организации политики экономического роста, скорее данный параметр выступает результирующим и соответственно должен восприниматься при принятии макроэкономических решений.

Suggested Citation

  • O. Sukharev S. & О. Сухарев С., 2017. "Некоторые Проблемы Теории Экономического Роста // Some Problems Of The Economic Growth Theory," Финансы: теория и практика/Finance: Theory and Practice // Finance: Theory and Practice, ФГОБУВО Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации // Financial University under The Government of Russian Federation, vol. 21(3), pages 61-74.
  • Handle: RePEc:scn:financ:y:2017:i:3:p:61-74
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert M. Solow, 1994. "Perspectives on Growth Theory," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 45-54, Winter.
    2. Richard Nelson, 2008. "Economic Development from the Perspective of Evolutionary Economic Theory," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 9-21.
    3. Robert M. Solow, 2007. "The last 50 years in growth theory and the next 10," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 23(1), pages 3-14, Spring.
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