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The Routes To Chaos In The Bitcoins Market

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  • H. Siddiqi

    (The University of Queensland)

Abstract

I argue that the bitcoins market is an example of a complex system without a stable equilibrium. The users of bitcoins fall into two broad categories: 1) Capital gain seekers: who have no functional use for the currency apart from an expectation of capital gains; 2) Functional users: who use the currency to save on transaction costs as it provides a less costly medium of exchange over traditional fiat currencies. I assume thateach category consists of mean-variance optimizers, and specify simple evolutionary dynamics for each category. I identify two simple routes to chaos in the bitcoins market. If only capital gain seekers are present, then one route to chaos is via the logistic map. If both categories of users matter then a possible route to chaos is via the delay logistic-Hénon map. A policy recommendation follows: in order to pre-empt chaos in the bitcoins market, currency exchanges should be allowed to convert bitcoins into dollars and vice versa if and only if there is an associated transaction involving buying and selling of goods or services or if the bitcoins are freshly mined.Such a regulation pre-empts chaos by reducing the impact of capital gain seekers on the virtual currency’s value. Рынок биткоинов является примером сложной системы, не имеющей устойчивого равновесия. Пользователи биткоинов делятся на две большие категории: 1) стремящиеся только к приросту капитала;2) функциональные пользователи, которые используют валюту, чтобы сэкономить на трансакционных издержках. Я определяю два пути, которые могут привести к хаосу на рынке биткоинов. Если присутствуют только искатели прироста капитала, то маршрут к хаосу идет через логистическое отображение. Еслиобе категории пользователей присутствуют, то маршрут к хаосу возможен с помощью отсроченного логистического отображения Эно. Вывод: чтобы не допустить хаос на рынке биткоинов, валютным биржам следует разрешить конвертацию биткоинов в доллары и наоборот, только если имеется связанная сделка покупки или продажи товаров или услуг, или если биткоины только что получены. Такое регулирование предотвращает хаос путем уменьшения воздействия на стоимость виртуальной валюты со стороны пользователей, ищущих прироста капитала.

Suggested Citation

  • H. Siddiqi, 2015. "The Routes To Chaos In The Bitcoins Market," Review of Business and Economics Studies // Review of Business and Economics Studies, Финансовый Университет // Financial University, vol. 3(3), pages 32-38.
    • Handle: RePEc:scn:00rbes:y:2015:i:3:p:32-38
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