SHADOW ECONOMY AND FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS FOR THE CASE OF ROMANIA Abstract : Shadow economy (SE) represents a controversial phenomenon, present more or less in all economies, whose empirical estimates should be regarded with due reserve. The main goal of this paper is to analyze the nature of the relationship between Romanian shadow economy, expressed as % of the official GDP and the foreign direct investments (FDI) using two causality analysis methods, namely the Granger causality analysis method and the Toda-Yamamoto procedure, based on quarterly data, over the period 2000-2010. The paper will also try to particularize the implications of this relationship on the sustainable development of the Romanian economy. For that purpose we will use the shadow economy series estimated in a previous article using one of the monetary approaches, the currency demand approach, based on econometrical methodology of error correction models and co-integration. The quantitative demarche of shadow economy estimation is detailed in author (2013). The empirical results highlight a unidirectional short-run causality that runs only from foreign direct investments to the shadow economy. The impulse responses function indicates a short-run negative relationship between FDI and SE
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Schneider, Friedrich, 2005.
"Shadow economies around the world: what do we really know?,"
European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 598-642, September.
- Friedrich Schneider, 2004. "Shadow Economies around the World: What do we really know?," IAW Discussion Papers 16, Institut für Angewandte Wirtschaftsforschung (IAW).
- Egger, Peter & Winner, Hannes, 2005. "Evidence on corruption as an incentive for foreign direct investment," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 932-952, December.
- Davies, Ronald B., 2005.
"State tax competition for foreign direct investment: a winnable war?,"
Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 498-512, December.
- Ronald B. Davies, 2000. "State Tax Competition for Foreign Direct Investment: A Winnable War?," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2000-4, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 01 Jul 2002.
- Torgler, Benno & Schneider, Friedrich, 2007.
"Shadow Economy, Tax Morale, Governance and Institutional Quality: A Panel Analysis,"
Berkeley Olin Program in Law & Economics, Working Paper Series
qt26s710z8, Berkeley Olin Program in Law & Economics.
- Benno Torgler & Friedrich Schneider, 2007. "Shadow Economy, Tax Morale, Governance and Institutional Quality: A Panel Analysis," CREMA Working Paper Series 2007-02, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
- Benno Torgler & Friedrich Schneider, 2007. "Shadow Economy, Tax Morale, Governance and Institutional Quality: A Panel Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 1923, CESifo.
- Torgler, Benno & Schneider, Friedrich, 2007. "Shadow Economy, Tax Morale, Governance and Institutional Quality: A Panel Analysis," IZA Discussion Papers 2563, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
- Friedrich Schneider & Benno Torgler, 2007. "Shadow economy, tax morale, governance and institutional quality: A panel analysis," Economics working papers 2007-01, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
- Benno Torgler & Friedrich Schneider, 2007. "Shadow Economy, Tax Morale, Governance and Institutional Quality: A Panel Analysis," Working Papers 04-2007, Institute of Local Public Finance.
- Nikopour, Hesam & Shah Habibullah, Muzafar & Schneider, Friedrich & Law, Siong Hook, 2009. "Foreign Direct Investment and Shadow Economy: A Causality Analysis Using Panel Data," MPRA Paper 14485, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Axel Dreher & Friedrich Schneider, 2010.
"Corruption and the shadow economy: an empirical analysis,"
Public Choice, Springer, vol. 144(1), pages 215-238, July.
- Axel Dreher & Friedrich Schneider, 2006. "Corruption and the Shadow Economy: An Empirical Analysis," CREMA Working Paper Series 2006-01, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
- Axel Dreher & Friedrich Schneider, 2006. "Corruption and the Shadow Economy: An Empirical Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 1653, CESifo.
- Axel Dreher & Friedrich G. Schneider, 2006. "Corruption and the shadow economy: An empirical analysis," Economics working papers 2006-03, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
- Dreher, Axel & Schneider, Friedrich, 2006. "Corruption and the Shadow Economy: An Empirical Analysis," IZA Discussion Papers 1936, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
- Axel Dreher & Friedrich Schneider, 2006. "Corruption and the Shadow Economy: An Empirical Analysis," KOF Working papers 06-123, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
- Torgler, Benno & Schneider, Friedrich, 2009.
"The impact of tax morale and institutional quality on the shadow economy,"
Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 228-245, April.
- Friedrich Schneider & Benno Torgler, 2007. "The impact of tax morale and institutional quality on the shadow economy," Economics working papers 2007-02, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
- Torgler, Benno & Schneider, Friedrich, 2007. "The Impact of Tax Morale and Institutional Quality on the Shadow Economy," IZA Discussion Papers 2541, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
- Benno Torgler & Friedrich Schneider, 2007. "The Impact of Tax Morale and Institutional Quality on the Shadow Economy," CREMA Working Paper Series 2007-01, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
- Benno Torgler & Friedrich Schneider, 2007. "The Impact of Tax Morale and Institutional Quality on the Shadow Economy," CESifo Working Paper Series 1899, CESifo.
- Schneider, Friedrich G., 2007. "Shadow Economies and Corruption All Over the World: New Estimates for 145 Countries," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 1, pages 1-66.
- Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
- Ali Al-Sadig, 2009. "The Effects of Corruption on FDI Inflows," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 29(2), pages 267-294, Winter.
- Friedrich Schneider, 2005. "Shadow Economies of 145 Countries all over the World: What Do We Really Know?," CREMA Working Paper Series 2005-13, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
- Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998.
"Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models,"
Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
- Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y., 1997. "Generalised Impulse Response Analysis in Linear Multivariate Models," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9710, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Friedman, Eric & Johnson, Simon & Kaufmann, Daniel & Zoido-Lobaton, Pablo, 2000. "Dodging the grabbing hand: the determinants of unofficial activity in 69 countries," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 459-493, June.
- Albu, Lucian Liviu & Iorgulescu, Raluca & Stanica, Cristian, 2010. "Estimating Hidden Economy and Hidden Migration: The Case of Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 46-56, July.
- Shang-Jin Wei, 2000.
"How Taxing is Corruption on International Investors?,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(1), pages 1-11, February.
- Shang-Jin Wei, 1997. "How Taxing is Corruption on International Investors?," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 63, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
- Shang-Jin Wei, 1997. "How Taxing is Corruption on International Investors?," NBER Working Papers 6030, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Morrissey, Oliver & Udomkerdmongkol, Manop, 2012. "Governance, Private Investment and Foreign Direct Investment in Developing Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 437-445.
- Elizabeth Asiedu, 2006.
"Foreign Direct Investment in Africa: The Role of Natural Resources, Market Size, Government Policy, Institutions and Political Instability,"
The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 63-77, January.
- Elizabeth Asiedu, 2005. "Foreign Direct Investment in Africa: The Role of Natural Resources, Market Size, Government Policy, Institutions and Political Instability," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2005-24, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
- Lucian Liviu Albu & Ion Ghizdeanu & Cristian Stanica, 2011. "Spatial Distribution of the Informal Economy. A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation," SCIENZE REGIONALI, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2011(1), pages 63-80.
- Mohsin Habib & Leon Zurawicki, 2002. "Corruption and Foreign Direct Investment," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 33(2), pages 291-307, June.
- Friedrich Schneider, 2000.
"The Increase of the size of the shadow economy of 18 OECD countries: Some preliminary explanations,"
Economics working papers
2000-08, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
- Friedrich Schneider, 2000. "The Increase of the Size of the Shadow Economy of 18 OECD Countries: Some Preliminary Explanations," CESifo Working Paper Series 306, CESifo.
- Albu, Lucian Liviu, 2008. "A Model To Estimate Spatial Distribution Of Informal Economy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(4), pages 111-124, December.
- Emmanuel Cleeve, 2008. "How effective are fiscal incentives to attract FDI to Sub-Saharan Africa?," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 42(1), pages 135-153, September.
- Thomas P. Murtha & Stefanie Ann Lenway, 1994. "Country capabilities and the strategic state: How national political institutions affect multinational Corporations' Strategies," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(S2), pages 113-129, June.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Nikopour, Hesam & Shah Habibullah, Muzafar & Schneider, Friedrich & Law, Siong Hook, 2009. "Foreign Direct Investment and Shadow Economy: A Causality Analysis Using Panel Data," MPRA Paper 14485, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- D’Hernoncourt, Johanna & Méon, Pierre-Guillaume, 2012.
"The not so dark side of trust: Does trust increase the size of the shadow economy?,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 97-121.
- Johanna D'Hernoncourt & Pierre-Guillaume Méon, 2008. "The not so dark side of trust: does trust increase the size of the shadow economy?," Working Papers CEB 08-030, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Johanna D'Hernoncourt & Pierre-Guillaume Méon, 2012. "The not so dark side of trust: Does trust increase the size of the shadow economy?," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/98287, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Adriana AnaMaria Davidescu (Alexandru) & Ion Dobre, 2013. "The Impact of Unemployment Rate on the Size of Romanian Shadow Economy," Public Finance Review, , vol. 41(5), pages 578-607, September.
- Tran, My Thi Ha, 2021. "Public Sector Management And Corruption In Asean Plus Six," OSF Preprints stxw4, Center for Open Science.
- Tran, My Thi Ha, 2021. "Public Sector Management And Corruption In Asean Plus Six," OSF Preprints stxw4_v1, Center for Open Science.
- Friedrich SCHNEIDER, 2016.
"Estimating the Size of the Shadow Economy: Methods, Problems and Open Questions,"
Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 256-280, June.
- Andreas Buehn & Friedrich Schneider, 2013. "Estimating the Size of the Shadow Economy: Methods, Problems and Open Questions," Economics working papers 2013-20, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
- Friedrich Schneider & Andreas Bühn, 2013. "Estimating the Size of the Shadow Economy: Methods, Problems and Open Questions," CESifo Working Paper Series 4448, CESifo.
- Schneider, Friedrich & Buehn, Andreas, 2016. "Estimating the Size of the Shadow Economy: Methods, Problems and Open Questions," IZA Discussion Papers 9820, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
- Suslov, N. & Mel'tenisova, E., 2015. "Analysis of Energy Price's Impact on Shadow Economies Around the World," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 27(3), pages 12-43.
- Antonio Baez‐Morales, 2021. "A panel data analysis of FDI and informal labour markets," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(3), pages 346-363, July.
- Mazhar, Ummad & Méon, Pierre-Guillaume, 2017.
"Taxing the unobservable: The impact of the shadow economy on inflation and taxation,"
World Development, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 89-103.
- Ummad Mazhar & Pierre-Guillaume Méon, 2012. "Taxing the unobservable: The impact of the shadow economy on inflation and taxation," Working Papers CEB 12-023, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Cong Minh Huynh & Vu Hong Thai Nguyen & Hoang Bao Nguyen & Phuc Canh Nguyen, 2020. "One-way effect or multiple-way causality: foreign direct investment, institutional quality and shadow economy?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 219-239, February.
- Sahnoun, Marwa & Abdennadher, Chokri, 2019. "The nexus between unemployment rate and shadow economy: A comparative analysis of developed and developing countries using a simultaneous-equation model," Economics Discussion Papers 2019-30, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
- Afonso, Oscar & Neves, Pedro Cunha & Pinto, Tiago, 2020. "The non-observed economy and economic growth: A meta-analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(1).
- Schneider, Friedrich, 2012. "The Shadow Economy and Work in the Shadow: What Do We (Not) Know?," IZA Discussion Papers 6423, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
- Colin C. Williams & Friedrich Schneider, 2016. "Measuring the Global Shadow Economy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 16551, March.
- Ceyhun Elgin & Burak Uras, 2013.
"Is informality a barrier to financial development?,"
SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 309-331, August.
- Ceyhun Elgin & Burak R. Uras, 2012. "Is Informality a Barrier to Financial Development?," Working Papers 2012/12, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
- Feige, Edgar L., 2015.
"Reflections on the meaning and measurement of Unobserved Economies: What do we really know about the “Shadow Economy”?,"
MPRA Paper
68466, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Feige, Edgar L., 2016. "Reflections on the meaning and measurement of Unobserved Economies: What do we really know about the "Shadow Economy"," MPRA Paper 69271, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Feb 2016.
- Davidescu, Adriana AnaMaria & Petcu, Monica Aureliana & Curea, Stefania Cristina & Manta, Eduard Mihai, 2022. "Two faces of the same coin: Exploring the multilateral perspective of informality in relation to Sustainable Development Goals based on bibliometric analysis," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 683-705.
- Ismahene Yahyaoui, 2024. "How Corruption Mitigates the Effect of FDI on Economic Growth?," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(1), pages 1344-1362, March.
- Axel Dreher & Pierre-Guillaume Méon & Friedrich Schneider, 2014.
"The devil is in the shadow: Do institutions affect income and productivity or only official income and official productivity?,"
Post-Print CEB, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 158(1-2), pages 121-141, January.
- Axel Dreher & Pierre-Guillaume Méon & Friedrich Schneider, 2014. "The devil is in the shadow. Do institutions affect income and productivity or only official income and official productivity?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 158(1), pages 121-141, January.
- Axel Dreher & Pierre-Guillaume Méon & Friedrich Schneider, 2007. "The Devil is in the Shadow – Do Institutions Affect Income and Productivity or only Official Income and Official Productivity?," CESifo Working Paper Series 2150, CESifo.
- Axel Dreher & Pierre-Guillaume Méon & Friedrich Schneider, 2014. "The devil is in the shadow: Do institutions affect income and productivity or only official income and official productivity?," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/132819, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Dreher, A. & Méon, P. & Schneider, F., 2007. "The devil is in the shadow Do institutions affect income and productivity or only official income and official productivity?," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0768, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Axel Dreher & Pierre-Guillaume Méon & Friedrich Schneider, 2007. "The Devil Is in the Shadow. Do Institutions Affect Income and Productivity or Only Official Income and Official Productivity?," KOF Working papers 07-179, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
- Axel Dreher & Pierre-Guillaume Méon & Friedrich Schneider, 2012. "The devil is in the shadow. Do institutions affect income and productivity or only official income and official productivity?," Working Papers CEB 12-019, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Dreher, Axel & Méon, Pierre-Guillaume & Schneider, Friedrich G., 2008. "The Devil is in the Shadow Do institutions affect income and productivity or only official income and official productivity," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Zurich 2008 11, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
- Gheorghe H. Popescu & Adriana Ana Maria Davidescu & Catalin Huidumac, 2018. "Researching the Main Causes of the Romanian Shadow Economy at the Micro and Macro Levels: Implications for Sustainable Development," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-37, September.
More about this item
Keywords
Granger causality; Toda-Yamamoto approach; shadow economy; foreign direct investments;All these keywords.
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:scm:ecofrm:v:4:y:2015:i:2:p:24. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Iulian Condratov (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/feusvro.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.