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An Empirical Analysis of the Determination of House Prices in the United Kingdom

Author

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  • Joseph G. Nellis

    (Loughborough University.)

  • J. Andrew Longbottom

    (London Business School (Centre for Economic Forecasting))

Abstract

Between the first quarters of 1970 and 1980 the average price of new houses in the United Kingdom increased five-fold. Over the same period building societies grew to become major financial institutions, attracting almost 50 per cent of the personal sector's holdings of liquid assets, and responsible for more than 85 per cent of house purchase finance. This paper sets out to examine the extent to which building societies have been responsible for the rapid acceleration of house prices and indicates the other main determinants of this phenomenon. The analysis is extended to a discussion of recent econometric research into house price determination and arrives at a more general specification, employing an error-correction estimation methodology.

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph G. Nellis & J. Andrew Longbottom, 1981. "An Empirical Analysis of the Determination of House Prices in the United Kingdom," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 18(1), pages 9-21, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:urbstu:v:18:y:1981:i:1:p:9-21
    DOI: 10.1080/00420988120080021
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1978. "Serial Correlation as a Convenient Simplification, not a Nuisance: A Comment on a Study of the Demand for Money by the Bank of England," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(351), pages 549-563, September.
    2. Davidson, James E H, et al, 1978. "Econometric Modelling of the Aggregate Time-Series Relationship between Consumers' Expenditure and Income in the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(352), pages 661-692, December.
    3. Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing for Higher Order Serial Correlation in Regression Equations When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1303-1310, November.
    4. Oherlihy, C. St J. & Spencer, J. E., 1972. "Building Societies' Behaviour, 1955-70," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 61, pages 40-51, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nicodemo, Catia & Raya, Josep Maria, 2012. "Change in the distribution of house prices across Spanish cities," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 739-748.
    2. Lopez, Carmen & Aguayo, Eva & Exposito, Pilar, 1998. "El comportamiento de los precios de la vivienda en las regiones españolas: principales determinantes," Economic Development 34, University of Santiago de Compostela. Faculty of Economics and Business. Econometrics..
    3. Malpezzi, Stephen & Maclennan, Duncan, 2001. "The Long-Run Price Elasticity of Supply of New Residential Construction in the United States and the United Kingdom," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 278-306, September.
    4. Yufang Wang & Yanqing Jiang, 2016. "An Empirical Analysis of Factors Affecting the Housing Price in Shanghai," Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(2), pages 104-111, June.
    5. Nátaly Andrea Ortiz Galindo & Nelson Manolo Chávez Muñoz, 2013. "Demanda de vivienda nueva no vis en las tres principales ciudades de Colombia," Dimensión Empresarial, Universidad Autónoma del Caribe, June.
    6. Mark J. Holmes & Arthur Grimes, 2005. "Is there long-run convergence of regional house prices in the UK?," Working Papers 05_11, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    7. Lopez, Carmen, 2002. "Modelos econometricos del mercado de la vivienda en las regiones españolas," Economic Development 59, University of Santiago de Compostela. Faculty of Economics and Business. Econometrics..
    8. Lopez-Andion, Carmen, 2002. "El comportamiento de los precios de la vivienda en las regiones españolas," Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 2(1).
    9. Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry, 1985. "Conditional econometric modelling : an application to new house prices in the United Kingdom," International Finance Discussion Papers 254, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Levin, Eric J. & Wright, Robert E., 1997. "The impact of speculation on house prices in the United Kingdom," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 567-585, October.
    11. Xiaoping Zhou & Zhenyang Qin & Yingjie Zhang & Linyi Zhao & Yan Song, 2019. "Quantitative Estimation and Spatiotemporal Characteristic Analysis of Price Deviation in China's Housing Market," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(24), pages 1-28, December.
    12. Geoffrey Meen & Alexander Mihailov & Yehui Wang, 2016. "Endogenous UK Housing Cycles and the Risk Premium: Understanding the Next Housing Crisis," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2016-02, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    13. Diana Kasparova & Michael White, 2001. "The Responsiveness Of House Prices To Macroeconomic Forces: A Cross-Countr Y Comparison," European Journal of Housing Policy, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 1(3), pages 385-416.
    14. Brown, Jane P. & Song, Haiyan & McGillivray, Alan, 1997. "Forecasting UK house prices: A time varying coefficient approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 529-548, October.
    15. Seema Narayan & Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2011. "The Importance of Real and Nominal Shocks on the UK Housing Market," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 10(3), pages 219-234, December.
    16. Patrick J. Wilson & Ralf Zurbruegg, 2008. "Big City Difference? Another Look at Factors Driving House Prices," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(2), pages 157-177, November.

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