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An Investigation into the Estimation and Reliability of Urban Shopping Models

Author

Listed:
  • R. Turner

    (University of Sussex Science Policy Research Unit)

  • H.S.D. Cole

    (University of Sussex Science Policy Research Unit)

Abstract

This paper evaluates the reliability of variants of five urban shopping models : Central Place theory, the Inter vening Opportunities model, Gravity model, the Entropy model, and the Building Research Establishment (BRE) model. For each model variant parameters are estimated against data for four towns in the United Kingdom: Coventry, Derby, Watford and Telford, using alternative procedures for testing significance of the calibration. The models are then used to forecast hypothetical changes in local shopping environments, including dynamic effects, such as the progressive decline of local centres. On the basis of the results, some general conclusions are drawn as to the relative performance of the models and the factors determining their reliability in different forecasting situations.

Suggested Citation

  • R. Turner & H.S.D. Cole, 1980. "An Investigation into the Estimation and Reliability of Urban Shopping Models," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 17(2), pages 139-157, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:urbstu:v:17:y:1980:i:2:p:139-157
    DOI: 10.1080/00420988020080311
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cole, H. S. D., 1972. "A computer model for the comparison of alternative foodstuffs shopping environments," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 329-348, August.
    2. Brown, Alan & Deaton, Angus S, 1972. "Surveys in Applied Economics: Models of Consumer Behaviour," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 82(328), pages 1145-1236, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mark J. Eppli & James D. Shilling, 1996. "How Critical Is a Good Location to a Regional Shopping Center?," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 12(3), pages 459-468.
    2. Gurmu, Shiferaw & Rilstone, Paul & Stern, Steven, 1998. "Semiparametric estimation of count regression models1," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 123-150, November.
    3. A. Ason Okoruwa & Hugh O. Nourse & Joseph V. Terza, 1994. "Estimating Sales for Retail Centers: An Application of the Poisson Gravity Model," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 9(1), pages 85-98.

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