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The impact of hurricane strikes on cruise ship and airplane tourist arrivals in the Caribbean

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  • Pablo Carballo Chanfón
  • Preeya Mohan
  • Eric Strobl
  • Thomas Tveit

Abstract

We investigate the impact of hurricanes on airplane and cruise ship arrivals in the Caribbean. To this end, we construct a monthly panel of airline and cruise ship arrivals and hurricane destruction and employ a panel vector autoregressive model with an exogenous shock (VARX) to quantify the dynamic effects of tourist arrivals after a hurricane for 18 Caribbean countries over the period 2000–2013. The results suggest an immediate decline in the month of a strike and up to one month after on cruise ship (2.33 and 1.21 percentage points) and airplane (0.57 and 0.27 percentage points) arrivals. Moreover, a strong recovery in airplane arrivals in months 3–6 following a hurricane was sufficient to induce a net positive effect of around 2 percentage points of total tourist arrivals into the region.

Suggested Citation

  • Pablo Carballo Chanfón & Preeya Mohan & Eric Strobl & Thomas Tveit, 2023. "The impact of hurricane strikes on cruise ship and airplane tourist arrivals in the Caribbean," Tourism Economics, , vol. 29(1), pages 68-91, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:29:y:2023:i:1:p:68-91
    DOI: 10.1177/13548166211037406
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