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An India–China FTA

Author

Listed:
  • Manmohan Agarwal

    (International Governance Innovation (CIGI), Waterloo, Canada.)

  • Madanmohan Ghosh

    (Economic Analysis Directorate, Strategic Policy Branch, Environment Canada, 10 Wellington Street, Gatineau, Quebec, K1A 0H3. Email: madanmohan.ghosh@ec.gc.ca)

Abstract

In a recent visit to India the Chinese president, Hu Jintao, proposed closer economic relations between China and India, possibly a India–China free trade area (FTA). These two economies have been experiencing rapid growth during the last couple of decades and in recent years trade between these two nations has grown spectacularly. This article analyzes the implications of a possible India–China FTA on trade flows, real output and investment both at the aggregate and industry levels in India, China, the rest of Asia, the North American and European economies using a multi-sector, multi-region dynamic computable gen-eral equilibrium (CGE) model. Our simulation results suggest that the overall economic gains to India and China would be modest. The distribution of the economic gains, however, depends on the speed of elimination of the bilateral tariffs. China gains more if the tariffs are eliminated immediately, whereas India gains more from gradual liberalization. India’s exports to China could expand by almost 57 per cent, while imports from China could increase by over 240 per cent implying an increased bilateral trade deficit. Output in each sector in India would increase. Sectors such as clothing, leather, textiles and motor vehicles and parts would gain the most in India.

Suggested Citation

  • Manmohan Agarwal & Madanmohan Ghosh, 2011. "An India–China FTA," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 12(2), pages 185-220, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:soueco:v:12:y:2011:i:2:p:185-220
    DOI: 10.1177/139156141101200201
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    5. Swapan K. Bhattacharya & Biswanath Bhattacharyay, 2007. "Gains and Losses of India-China Trade Cooperation – a Gravity Model Impact Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 1970, CESifo.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    JEL: C61; JEL: C68; Regional trade agreements; FTA; dynamic general equilibrium model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models

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