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Explaining the Great Reversal in Spanish America

Author

Listed:
  • Aaron Katz

    (Brown University)

  • Matthias vom Hau

    (Brown University)

  • James Mahoney

    (Brown University)

Abstract

This article evaluates the relative strengths and weaknesses of fuzzy-set analysis and regression analysis for explaining the “great reversal†in Spanish America. From 1750 to 1900, the most marginal colonial territories often became the region’s wealthiest countries, whereas the most central colonial territories often became the region’s poorest countries. To explain this reversal, five competing hypotheses are tested using both regression and fuzzy-set methods. The fuzzy-set analysis reaches substantively important conclusions, finding that strong liberal factions are probabilistically necessary for economic development and that dense indigenous populations are probabilistically necessary for social underdevelopment. By contrast, the regression analysis generates findings that are not meaningful. The article concludes that fuzzy-set analysis and regression analysis operate in different “causal universes†and that greater attention should be granted to the causal universe occupied by fuzzy-set analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Aaron Katz & Matthias vom Hau & James Mahoney, 2005. "Explaining the Great Reversal in Spanish America," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 33(4), pages 539-573, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:somere:v:33:y:2005:i:4:p:539-573
    DOI: 10.1177/0049124104266002
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson, 2001. "The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1369-1401, December.
    2. Ragin, Charles C., 2000. "Fuzzy-Set Social Science," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226702773, April.
    3. Seawright, Jason, 2002. "Testing for Necessary and/or Sufficient Causation: Which Cases Are Relevant?," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(2), pages 178-193, April.
    4. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson, 2002. "Reversal of Fortune: Geography and Institutions in the Making of the Modern World Income Distribution," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1231-1294.
    5. repec:ucp:bkecon:9780226702766 is not listed on IDEAS
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