IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/risrel/v238y2024i3p464-474.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Quantification of risk dilution induced by correlation parameters in dynamic probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power plants

Author

Listed:
  • Kotaro Kubo
  • Yoichi Tanaka
  • Jun Ishikawa

Abstract

Nuclear power plants are critical infrastructures that produce electricity. However, accidents in nuclear power plants can cause considerable consequences such as the release of radioactive materials. Therefore, appropriately managing their risk is necessary. Various nuclear regulatory agencies employ probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) to effectively evaluate risks in nuclear power plants. Dynamic PRA has gained popularity because it allows for more realistic assessment by reducing the assumptions and engineering judgments related to time-dependent failure probability and/or human-action reliability in the conventional PRA methodology. However, removing all assumptions and engineering judgments is difficult; thus, the risk analyst, for example, the regulator, must understand their effects on the assessment results. This study focuses on “risk dilution,†which emerges from the assumptions about uncertainty. Dynamic PRA of a station blackout sequence in a boiling-water reactor was performed using the dynamic PRA tool, namely, Risk Assessment with Plant Interactive Dynamics (RAPID) and the severe-accident code Thermal–Hydraulic Analysis of Loss of Coolant, Emergency Core Cooling, and Severe Core Damage version 2 (THALES2), which altered the correlation parameters among the uncertainties of the events that occurred in sequence. The results demonstrated that the conditional core-damage probability and mean value of the core-damage time varied from 0.27 to 0.47 and from 7.1 to 8.7 h, respectively. When the dynamic PRA results are used for risk-informed decision making, the decision maker should adequately consider the effect of risk dilution.

Suggested Citation

  • Kotaro Kubo & Yoichi Tanaka & Jun Ishikawa, 2024. "Quantification of risk dilution induced by correlation parameters in dynamic probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power plants," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 238(3), pages 464-474, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:risrel:v:238:y:2024:i:3:p:464-474
    DOI: 10.1177/1748006X231167201
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1748006X231167201
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/1748006X231167201?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:risrel:v:238:y:2024:i:3:p:464-474. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.