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Modelling uncertainty in fault tree analyses using evidence theory

Author

Listed:
  • P Limbourg
  • R Savić
  • J Petersen
  • H-D Kochs

Abstract

The Dempster—Shafer Theory of Evidence (DST) has been considered as an alternative to probabilistic modelling if both a large amount of uncertainty and a conservative treatment of this uncertainty are necessary. Both requirements are normally met in early design stages. Expert estimates replace field data and hardly any accurate test results are available. Therefore, a conservative uncertainty treatment is beneficial to assure a reliable and safe design. The present paper explores the applicability of DST which merges interval-based and probabilistic uncertainty modelling on a fault tree analysis from the automotive area. The system under investigation, an automatic transmission from the ZF AS Tronic series is still in the development stage. Expert estimates and the Monte Carlo propagation of the resulting mass function through the system model are used to obtain the uncertainty on the system failure probability. An exploratory sensitivity based on a non-specifity measure indicates which components contribute to the overall model uncertainty. The results are used to predict if the system complies with a given target failure measure.

Suggested Citation

  • P Limbourg & R Savić & J Petersen & H-D Kochs, 2008. "Modelling uncertainty in fault tree analyses using evidence theory," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 222(3), pages 291-302, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:risrel:v:222:y:2008:i:3:p:291-302
    DOI: 10.1243/1748006XJRR142
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    Cited by:

    1. Simon, Christophe & Bicking, Frédérique, 2017. "Hybrid computation of uncertainty in reliability analysis with p-box and evidential networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 629-638.
    2. Toppila, Antti & Salo, Ahti, 2017. "Selection of risk reduction portfolios under interval-valued probabilities," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 69-78.

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