IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/risrel/v220y2006i2p105-114.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

On probabilistic safety assessment in the case of zero failures

Author

Listed:
  • F. P. A. Coolen

Abstract

Probabilistic safety assessment often depends on the quantification of the frequencies of failures, on the basis of zero failures in the available data. A variety of estimates for such frequencies have been suggested in the literature, mainly within the classical and Bayesian statistical frameworks, and with emphasis on the constant failure rate of an exponential distribution. In this paper, this problem is considered from the perspective of non-parametric predictive inference (NPI), where the main difference from the established approaches is the use of lower and upper probabilities, leading to lower and upper estimates for the constant exponential failure rate instead of point estimates. On the basis of zero failures observed, the lower estimate for the failure rate is zero; so interest is mostly in the upper failure rate. Such lower and upper estimates reflect the indeterminacy due to the data scarcity. The NPI-based upper estimate for the failure rate depends not only on the length of the failure-free period represented as data but also on the required or chosen length of the future period considered in the risk assessment, in a possibly surprising manner. The use of failure rate estimates in probabilistic safety assessment is discussed, and a more straightforward predictive approach is suggested.

Suggested Citation

  • F. P. A. Coolen, 2006. "On probabilistic safety assessment in the case of zero failures," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 220(2), pages 105-114, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:risrel:v:220:y:2006:i:2:p:105-114
    DOI: 10.1243/1748006XJRR15
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1243/1748006XJRR15
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1243/1748006XJRR15?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:risrel:v:220:y:2006:i:2:p:105-114. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.