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The Existence, Endogeneity, and Synchronization of Long Waves: Structural Time Series Model Estimates

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  • Jonathan P. Goldstein

    (Economics, 9700 College Station, Bowdoin College, Brunswick, ME 04011, jgoldste@bowdoin.edu)

Abstract

In the spirit of David Gordon's application of advanced econometric techniques to problems in political economy and his interest in long waves, this paper develops a structural time series model for testing the existence, endogeneity, and synchronization of long waves in the output series for 11 countries. The results show a strong long wave pattern with a high degree of endogenous behavior in 8 of 11 GDP series. Strong evidence for the synchronization of long waves based on international transmission mechanisms is found, while weaker evidence exists for synchronization based on similar institutional structures. Other long wave hypotheses are also addressed.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan P. Goldstein, 1999. "The Existence, Endogeneity, and Synchronization of Long Waves: Structural Time Series Model Estimates," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 31(4), pages 61-101, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:reorpe:v:31:y:1999:i:4:p:61-101
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    Cited by:

    1. Marco Gallegati, 2019. "A system for dating long wave phases in economic development," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 803-822, July.
    2. Kriedel, Norbert, 2006. "Long waves of economic development and the diffusion of general-purpose technologies: The case of railway networks," HWWI Research Papers 1-1, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    3. TREMBLAY, Rodrigue, 2003. "Les cycles économiques et la science économique," Cahiers de recherche 2003-03, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    4. Tomás Gutiérrez-Barbarrusa, 2019. "The interpretation of the cyclical history of capitalism. A comparison between the neo-Schumpeterian and social structure of accumulation (SSA) approaches in light of the long wave theory," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(4), pages 1285-1314, September.

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