Energy and the Long Swing

Recent years have seen a resurgence of interest in Kondratiev 's concept of "long waves," an interest which has not been restricted to Marxist analysts. The idea that the entire history of capitalism has been characterized by 50 or 60year cycles of expansion and contraction appears to have a modest amount of evidentiary underpinning, although the causes of this behavior are still uncertain and hotly debated. In this essay, Matthew Edel reviews several existing theories of the long swing and situates the oil "shortages" of the seventies as contributary but not determining influences in the current downswing. Many analysts agree that recovery from a Kondratiev downswing involves the condensation of capital around hitherto unexploited technologies or industries. Edel argues that new energy technologies are prime candidates for such a role, and goes on to compare a variety of energy alternatives with respect to their technical suitability. He then concludes with an examination of the longer term social and political implications of the alternatives at hand. Although Edel's choices of energy options may not win universal acceptance, the structure of his discussion will prove useful even to those who disagree most strongly.