IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/niesru/v249y2019i1pf2-f2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The UK Economy: Forecast Summary

Author

Listed:
  • N/A

Abstract

Economic growth has stalled and there is around a one-in-four chance that the economy is already in a technical recession. The outlook beyond October, when the United Kingdom is due to leave the European Union, is very murky indeed with the possibility of a severe downturn in the event of a disorderly no-deal Brexit. On the assumption that a no-deal Brexit is avoided, the economy is forecast to grow at around 1 per cent in 2019 and 2020 as uncertainty continues to hold back investment and productivity growth remains weak. On the assumption of an orderly no-deal Brexit, the economy is forecast to stagnate, before starting to grow again in 2021. Some loosening of the public purse appears inevitable and we expect public sector borrowing to rise above 2 per cent of GDP, with the possibility of substantial over-runs of the government's fiscal objectives in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

Suggested Citation

  • N/A, 2019. "The UK Economy: Forecast Summary," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 249(1), pages 2-2, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:niesru:v:249:y:2019:i:1:p:f2-f2
    DOI: 10.1177/002795011924900101
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/002795011924900101
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/002795011924900101?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:niesru:v:249:y:2019:i:1:p:f2-f2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/niesruk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.