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Fiscal Sustainability

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  • Ray Barrell
  • Simon Kirby

Abstract

The global financial crisis has had significant effects both on the prospects for output growth and projections for government borrowing and debt. We project that the UK government debt stock will rise to around 100 per cent of GDP and that output will be permanently scarred by around 4–5 per cent. The first is much more pessimistic than government projections, whilst the second is similar. In this note we explain a sequence of revisions we have made to our projections for trend growth as the crisis has unfolded, and also look at medium-term projections for the fiscal position. Not all of the deterioration in the budget has come from revisions to output, and not all of the changes to trend output result from the crisis, but the two are crucially linked.
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Suggested Citation

  • Ray Barrell & Simon Kirby, 2009. "Fiscal Sustainability," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 208(1), pages 61-65, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:niesru:v:208:y:2009:i:1:p:61-65
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    Cited by:

    1. Ray Barrell & Dr Ian Hurst & Simon Kirby, 2009. "How to Pay for the Crisis or Macroeconomic implications of pension reform," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 333, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.

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