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The Impact of Fiscal and Monetary Policy Imbalances on the UK Economy

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  • Ray Barrell
  • Rebecca Riley

Abstract

This article evaluates the density forecasts of inflation published by the Bank of England and the National Institute of Economic and Social Research. It extends the analysis of the Bank of England’s fan charts in an earlier article by considering data up to 2003, quarter 4, and by correcting some technical details in the light of information published on the Bank’s website in Summer 2003. National Institute forecasts are also considered, although there are fewer comparable observations. Both groups’ central point forecasts are found to be unbiased, but their density forecasts substantially overstated forecast uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Ray Barrell & Rebecca Riley, 2004. "The Impact of Fiscal and Monetary Policy Imbalances on the UK Economy," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 189(1), pages 61-63, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:niesru:v:189:y:2004:i:1:p:61-63
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    Cited by:

    1. Muhammad Ali Nasir & Junjie Wu & Milton Yago & Alaa M. Soliman, 2016. "Macroeconomic policy interaction: State dependency and implications for financial stability in UK: A systemic review," Cogent Business & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 1154283-115, December.

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