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The Performance of National Institute Economic Forecasts

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  • David Poulizac
  • Martin Weale
  • Garry Young

Abstract

Economic forecasts are usually presented as point estimates, despite the margin of uncertainty which surrounds them. In November 1995 the National Institute began to present estimates of the probability of the government's inflation target being met and of there being a fall in GDP. This article describes the methods that we use for calculating these probabilities. We show, by studying eight successive forecasts of the same event, how forecast reliability improves as the forecast horizon approaches and demonstrate that this can be explained in terms of the accumulation of information about the state of the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • David Poulizac & Martin Weale & Garry Young, 1996. "The Performance of National Institute Economic Forecasts," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 156(1), pages 55-62, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:niesru:v:156:y:1996:i:1:p:55-62
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    Cited by:

    1. Anthony Tay & Kenneth F. Wallis, 2000. "Density Forecasting: A Survey," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0370, Econometric Society.
    2. Anthony Garratt & Kevin Lee & Mohammad Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin, 1998. "A structural cointegrating VAR approach to macroeconometric modelling," Edinburgh School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 8, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
    3. Hall, Stephen G. & Mitchell, James, 2007. "Combining density forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 1-13.
    4. Garratt A. & Lee K. & Pesaran M.H. & Shin Y., 2003. "Forecast Uncertainties in Macroeconomic Modeling: An Application to the U.K. Economy," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 98, pages 829-838, January.

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