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Prospective Evaluation of a Clinical and Exercise-test Model for the Prediction of left Main Coronary Artery Disease

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  • Thomas H. Lee
  • E. Francis Cook
  • Lee Goldman

Abstract

In a multivariate logistic regression analysis of data from 508 patients, only two clinical factors, age and typicality of pain, were independently significant predictors of left main coronary artery disease. The resulting multivariate equation was prospectively applied to another 370 patients to derive pre-exercise-test (ETT) probabilities of left main coronary artery disease, and these pre-ETT probabilities were combined with literature-derived like lihood ratios for various ETT findings to derive post-ETT probabilities. This model, which can be displayed in simple graphic form, accurately predicted the probability of left main coronary artery disease when prospectively evaluated in this independent validation set of patients. The likelihood of left main coronary artery disease was 16% when the ETT increased the probability, and 4% when it decreased the probability (p

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas H. Lee & E. Francis Cook & Lee Goldman, 1986. "Prospective Evaluation of a Clinical and Exercise-test Model for the Prediction of left Main Coronary Artery Disease," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 6(3), pages 136-144, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:medema:v:6:y:1986:i:3:p:136-144
    DOI: 10.1177/0272989X8600600302
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    Cited by:

    1. Thomas H. Lee & Tsuguya Fukui & Milton C. Weinstein & Anna N.A. Tosteson & Lee Goldman, 1988. "Cost-Effectiveness of Screening Strategies for Left Main Coronary Artery Disease in Patients with Stable Angina," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 8(4), pages 268-278, December.

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