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Use of the Hazard Rate to Schedule Follow-Up Exams Efficiently

Author

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  • Andrew J. Dwyer
  • Judith M. S. Prewitt
  • J.G. Ecker
  • J. Plunkett

Abstract

The problem of surveillance for metastasis in a cancer patient is modeled as an allo cation problem. The hazard rate of metastasis appearing determines the efficient scheduling of follow-up exams. An optimal schedule of follow-up exams is shown to be dependent on the hazard rate, K, and D. K relates the cost of testing to the benefit of early detection. It diminishes as benefit increases or cost diminishes. D is the time by which a metastasis' detection by testing precedes its clinical presentation. Hence it is a direct measure of the effectiveness of testing. The optimal testing frequency = (hazard rate/ 2K ) 1/2 . Testing may be stopped when the hazard rate drops below 2K/ D 2 . Tests need never be routinely scheduled if the intervals between tests exceed D in length. (Med Decis Making 3:229-244, 1983)

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew J. Dwyer & Judith M. S. Prewitt & J.G. Ecker & J. Plunkett, 1983. "Use of the Hazard Rate to Schedule Follow-Up Exams Efficiently," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 3(2), pages 229-244, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:medema:v:3:y:1983:i:2:p:229-244
    DOI: 10.1177/0272989X8300300211
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