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Natural Frequencies Do Not Foster Public Understanding of Medical Test Results

Author

Listed:
  • Stefania Pighin
  • Michel Gonzalez
  • Lucia Savadori
  • Vittorio Girotto

Abstract

Major organizations recommend presenting medical test results in terms of natural frequencies, rather than single-event probabilities. The evidence, however, is that natural frequency presentations benefit at most one-fifth of samples of health service users and patients. Only one study reported a substantial benefit of these presentations. Here, we replicate that study, testing online survey respondents. Study 1 attributed the previously reported benefit of natural frequencies to a scoring artifact. Study 2 showed that natural frequencies may elicit evaluations that conflict with the normatively correct one, potentially hindering informed decision making. Ironically, these evaluations occurred less often when respondents reasoned about single-event probabilities. These results suggest caution in promoting natural frequencies as the best way to communicate medical test data to health service users and patients.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefania Pighin & Michel Gonzalez & Lucia Savadori & Vittorio Girotto, 2016. "Natural Frequencies Do Not Foster Public Understanding of Medical Test Results," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 36(6), pages 686-691, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:medema:v:36:y:2016:i:6:p:686-691
    DOI: 10.1177/0272989X16640785
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Garcia-Retamero, Rocio & Hoffrage, Ulrich, 2013. "Visual representation of statistical information improves diagnostic inferences in doctors and their patients," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 27-33.
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