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The Half-Cycle Correction: Banish Rather Than Explain It

Author

Listed:
  • Jan J. Barendregt

    (University of Queensland, School of Population Health, Herston, Australia, j.barendregt@sph.uq.edu.au)

Abstract

The half-cycle correction is often used in discrete Markov models to estimate state membership. This article shows that the correction, in addition to being unintuitive, actually produces the wrong results in many circumstances. These include quality-adjusted life year (QALY) weights and unit costs that differ by cycle. The half-cycle correction is also incompatible with discounting of the obtained stream of state membership. It is furthermore shown that the life table method of estimating state membership obtains correct results under these circumstances and is also much more transparent. The article concludes that the half-cycle correction should be dropped in favor of the life table method.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan J. Barendregt, 2009. "The Half-Cycle Correction: Banish Rather Than Explain It," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 29(4), pages 500-502, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:medema:v:29:y:2009:i:4:p:500-502
    DOI: 10.1177/0272989X09340585
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    Cited by:

    1. Marta O. Soares & Luísa Canto e Castro, 2012. "Continuous Time Simulation and Discretized Models for Cost-Effectiveness Analysis," PharmacoEconomics, Springer, vol. 30(12), pages 1101-1117, December.
    2. Gordon B. Hazen, 2022. "Augmenting Markov Cohort Analysis to Compute (Co)Variances: Implications for Strength of Cost-Effectiveness," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 34(6), pages 3170-3180, November.
    3. Marta Soares & Luísa Canto e Castro, 2012. "Continuous Time Simulation and Discretized Models for Cost-Effectiveness Analysis," PharmacoEconomics, Springer, vol. 30(12), pages 1101-1117, December.
    4. Gandjour, Afschin, 2022. "The clinical and economic value of a successful shutdown during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Germany," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 502-509.

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