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FluSurge—A Tool to Estimate Demand for Hospital Services during the Next Pandemic Influenza

Author

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  • Xinzhi Zhang

    (MS # D-59, CDC/NCID/OD/OS, 1600 Clifton Rd NE, Atlanta, GA 30333; phone: (404) 371-5364; fax: (404) 371-5445; XZhang4@cdc.gov)

  • Martin I. Meltzer

    (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Infectious Diseases, Office of Surveillance)

  • Pascale M. Wortley

    (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Immunization Program)

Abstract

Purpose. To assess the impact of pandemic influenza on hospital services. Methods. Based on census data and estimates of hospital resources (non-ICU [intensive care unit] beds, ICU beds, and mechanical ventilators) in a given area, FluSurge software estimates the number of hospital admissions and deaths due to pandemic influenza under variable duration and virulence scenarios and compares hospital resources needed during a pandemic with existing hospital resources. Results. Sample results from Metropolitan Atlanta illustrate how the next influenza pandemic may overwhelm existing hospital resources, given that hospitals increasingly operate at nearly full capacity. Conclusions. Hospitals need to consider and plan for a surge in demand for hospital services during the next influenza pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Xinzhi Zhang & Martin I. Meltzer & Pascale M. Wortley, 2006. "FluSurge—A Tool to Estimate Demand for Hospital Services during the Next Pandemic Influenza," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 26(6), pages 617-623, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:medema:v:26:y:2006:i:6:p:617-623
    DOI: 10.1177/0272989X06295359
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    1. Lembke B., 1918. "√ a. p," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 111(1), pages 709-712, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. James W Rudge & Piya Hanvoravongchai & Ralf Krumkamp & Irwin Chavez & Wiku Adisasmito & Pham Ngoc Chau & Bounlay Phommasak & Weerasak Putthasri & Chin-Shui Shih & Mart Stein & Aura Timen & Sok Touch &, 2012. "Health System Resource Gaps and Associated Mortality from Pandemic Influenza across Six Asian Territories," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(2), pages 1-10, February.
    2. Amy L Greer & Dena Schanzer, 2013. "Using a Dynamic Model to Consider Optimal Antiviral Stockpile Size in the Face of Pandemic Influenza Uncertainty," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(6), pages 1-9, June.
    3. Margaret L. Brandeau & Jessica H. McCoy & Nathaniel Hupert & Jon-Erik Holty & Dena M. Bravata, 2009. "Recommendations for Modeling Disaster Responses in Public Health and Medicine: A Position Paper of the Society for Medical Decision Making," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 29(4), pages 438-460, July.

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