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The GAME Estimate of Reduced Life Expectancy

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  • Wilbert B. van den Hout

Abstract

The Declining Exponential Approximation of Life Expectancy (DEALE) is a simple method of estimating the impact of excessmortality on life expectancy, but it can lead to considerable bias due to the implicit constant baseline and excess mortality rates. This article presents a new method that does not use constant mortality rates. The variability of the baseline mortality is modeled using gamma (GA) distributions. Excess mortality rates are modeled using mixed-exponential (ME) distributions, which is appropriate if the excessmortality rate is nonincreasing, convex, and smooth. The new gamma mixed-exponential (GAME) estimate is convenient enough to replace the DEALE in formal decision analyses. The error from assuming gamma distributions for the Dutch baseline mortality was shown to be less than 2 months and typically about 1 month. Therefore, the GAME estimate is accurate enough to replace more elaborate methods, provided themixed-exponential model is an appropriatemodel for the excess mortality .

Suggested Citation

  • Wilbert B. van den Hout, 2004. "The GAME Estimate of Reduced Life Expectancy," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 24(1), pages 80-88, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:medema:v:24:y:2004:i:1:p:80-88
    DOI: 10.1177/0272989X03261564
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Yingwei Peng & Keith B. G. Dear, 2000. "A Nonparametric Mixture Model for Cure Rate Estimation," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 56(1), pages 237-243, March.
    2. Robert R. Holland & Charles A. Ellis & Berta M. Geller & Dennis A. Plante & Roger H. Secker-Walker, 1999. "Life Expectancy Estimation with Breast Cancer: Bias of the Declining Exponential Function and an Alternative to Its Use," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 19(4), pages 385-393, October.
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    1. Sawchuk, Lawrence A. & Tripp, Lianne & Melnychenko, Ulianna, 2013. "The Jewish Advantage and Household Security: Life Expectancy among 19th Century Sephardim of Gibraltar," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 360-370.

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