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Estimating the Prognosis of Hepatitis C Patients Infected by Transfusion in Canada between 1986 and 1990

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  • Murray Krahn
  • John B. Wong
  • Jenny Heathcote
  • Linda Scully
  • Leonard Seeff

Abstract

Objective. To develop a natural history model for chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection to determine allocation of compensatory funds to Canadians who acquired HCV through the blood supply from 1986 through 1990. Methods. A Markov cohort simulation model for HCV prognosis was developed, using content experts, published data, posttransfusion look-back data, and a national survey. Results. The mortality rate in transfusees is high (46% at 10 years), although HCV-related deaths are rare. Only 14% develop-cirrhosis at 20 years (95% confidence interval, 0%–-44%), but 1 in 4 will eventually develop cirrhosis, and 1 in 8 will die of liver disease. Conclusions. This unique application of Markov cohort simulation and epidemiologic methods provides a state-of-the-art estimate ofHCVprognosis and has allowed compensation decisions to be based on the best available evidence.

Suggested Citation

  • Murray Krahn & John B. Wong & Jenny Heathcote & Linda Scully & Leonard Seeff, 2004. "Estimating the Prognosis of Hepatitis C Patients Infected by Transfusion in Canada between 1986 and 1990," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 24(1), pages 20-29, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:medema:v:24:y:2004:i:1:p:20-29
    DOI: 10.1177/0272989X03261568
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    Cited by:

    1. Raffaele Argiento & Alessandra Guglielmi & Ettore Lanzarone & Inad Nawajah, 2016. "A Bayesian framework for describing and predicting the stochastic demand of home care patients," Flexible Services and Manufacturing Journal, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 254-279, June.

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