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Sensitivity Analysis on a Chance Node with More Than Two Branches

Author

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  • Peter P. Sendi
  • Robert T. Clemen

Abstract

Sensitivity analysis is an essential part of decision analysis. The literature on medical decision analysis suggests the use of two-branch chance nodes in decision trees to avoid logical inconsistencies during sensitivity analysis. The authors show that the two- branch decomposition is not appropriate for sensitivity analysis when multiple out comes from a single state cannot be disentangled into a sensible sequence of events. They recommend retaining the natural structure of the tree and propose two sensitivity- analysis methods for use on chance nodes with three or more branches. Key words: sensitivity analysis; decision analysis; decision tree; probability. (Med Decis Making 1999;19:499-502)

Suggested Citation

  • Peter P. Sendi & Robert T. Clemen, 1999. "Sensitivity Analysis on a Chance Node with More Than Two Branches," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 19(4), pages 499-502, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:medema:v:19:y:1999:i:4:p:499-502
    DOI: 10.1177/0272989X9901900418
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    Cited by:

    1. Edmund Jones & David Epstein & Leticia García-Mochón, 2017. "A Procedure for Deriving Formulas to Convert Transition Rates to Probabilities for Multistate Markov Models," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 37(7), pages 779-789, October.

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