IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/medema/v16y1996i2p133-142.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Effect of Disease-prevalence Adjustments on the Accuracy of a Logistic Prediction Model

Author

Listed:
  • Anthony P. Morise
  • George A. Diamond
  • Robert Detrano
  • Marco Bobbio
  • Erdogan Gunel

Abstract

The accuracy of a logistic prediction model is degraded when it is transported to pop ulations with outcome prevalences different from that of the population used to derive the model. The resultant errors can have major clinical implications. Accordingly, the authors developed a logistic prediction model with respect to the noninvasive diagnosis of coronary disease based on 1,824 patients who underwent exercise testing and coronary angiography, varied the prevalence of disease in various "test" populations by random sampling of the original "derivation" population, and determined the accu racy of the logistic prediction model before and after the application of a mathematical algorithm designed to adjust only for these differences in prevalence. The accuracy of each prediction model was quantified in terms of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve area (discrimination) and chi-square goodness-of-fit (calibration). As the prevalence of the test population diverged from the prevalence of the derivation pop ulation, discrimination improved (ROC-curve areas increased from 0.82 ± 0.02 to 0.87 ± 0.03; p

Suggested Citation

  • Anthony P. Morise & George A. Diamond & Robert Detrano & Marco Bobbio & Erdogan Gunel, 1996. "The Effect of Disease-prevalence Adjustments on the Accuracy of a Logistic Prediction Model," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 16(2), pages 133-142, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:medema:v:16:y:1996:i:2:p:133-142
    DOI: 10.1177/0272989X9601600205
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0272989X9601600205
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/0272989X9601600205?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. van der Laan Mark J., 2008. "Estimation Based on Case-Control Designs with Known Prevalence Probability," The International Journal of Biostatistics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-59, September.
    2. Rose Sherri & van der Laan Mark J., 2008. "Simple Optimal Weighting of Cases and Controls in Case-Control Studies," The International Journal of Biostatistics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-26, September.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:medema:v:16:y:1996:i:2:p:133-142. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.