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Risk tolerance during conflict: Evidence from Aleppo, Syria

Author

Listed:
  • Vera Mironova

    (Department of Economics, Harvard University)

  • Loubna Mrie

    (Kevorkian Center for Near Eastern Studies, New York University)

  • Sam Whitt

    (Department of Political Science, High Point University)

Abstract

When war breaks out, how important are risk preferences to explaining why some individuals stay in conflict zones while others take flight? We examine risk tolerance among rebel combatants and civilians in Aleppo, Syria using a variation of the Eckel-Grossman Choice Game. Field work in Syria was conducted in 2013–14 with a total of 232 participants to include both Syrian civilians and active rebel fighters in Aleppo and Idlib Province, as well as among Syrian refugees in neighboring Turkey. Compared to Syrians in other locations, people in rebel-held territory of Aleppo, both combatants and non-combatants, are significantly more risk tolerant. We consider possible explanations for elevated risk preferences in Aleppo based on self-selection, adaptive learning, a sense of self-efficacy to affect future outcomes, conflict-related grievances, and in-group solidarity. Our analysis suggests that self-selection based on access to resources and a strong sense of self-efficacy may explain higher propensity for risk-taking. Overall, our results speak to a plausible sorting mechanism during conflict where risk averse individuals select out of conflict, while highly risk tolerant individuals are more prone to discount the inherent dangers of remaining in conflict zones. Our results provide new micro-level explanation for why some societies become mired in conflict traps involving highly risk tolerant fighting communities.

Suggested Citation

  • Vera Mironova & Loubna Mrie & Sam Whitt, 2019. "Risk tolerance during conflict: Evidence from Aleppo, Syria," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 56(6), pages 767-782, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:joupea:v:56:y:2019:i:6:p:767-782
    DOI: 10.1177/0022343318824632
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Souhila Belabbas & Jakub Bijak & Ariana Modirrousta-Galian & Sarah Nurse, 2022. "From Conflict Zones to Europe: Syrian and Afghan Refugees’ Journeys, Stories, and Strategies," Social Inclusion, Cogitatio Press, vol. 10(4), pages 211-221.
    2. Ariana Modirrousta-Galian & Toby Prike & Philip A. Higham & Martin Hinsch & Sarah Nurse & Souhila Belabbas & Jakub Bijak, 2024. "Exploring the Potential of Using a Text-Based Game to Inform Simulation Models of Risky Migration Decisions," Simulation & Gaming, , vol. 55(4), pages 716-735, August.
    3. Kuroishi, Yusuke & Sawada, Yasuyuki, 2024. "On the stability of preferences: Experimental evidence from two disasters," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    4. Kristin Fabbe & Chad Hazlett & Tolga Sinmazdemir, 2024. "Threat perceptions, loyalties and attitudes towards peace: The effects of civilian victimization among Syrian refugees in Turkey," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 41(3), pages 263-288, May.
    5. Ferguson, Neil T.N. & Leroch, Martin Alois, 2023. "On the behavioral impacts of violence: Evidence from incentivized games in Kenya," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    6. Elanga Mendogo, Daniel Joël & Bocquého, Géraldine, 2024. "Risk preferences and refugee migration to Europe: An experimental analysis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    7. Klöble, Katrin, 2021. "A behavioural perspective on the drivers of migration: Studying economic and social preferences using the Gallup World Poll," IDOS Discussion Papers 4/2021, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    8. Dorothee Weiffen & Ghassan Baliki & Tilman Brück, 2022. "Violent conflict moderates food security impacts of agricultural asset transfers in Syria: A heterogeneity analysis using machine learning," HiCN Working Papers 381, Households in Conflict Network.

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