Does Supply-Induced Scarcity Drive Violent Conflicts in the African Sahel? The Case of the Tuareg Rebellion in Northern Mali

According to the influential `environmental security' literature, supply-induced scarcity in the form of environmental degradation is a key driver of civil violence around the world. African drylands, especially the Sahel region, are allegedly among the areas most seriously affected by this development. Views of desertification and severe environmental degradation in the Sahel are held by environmental security scholars, despite the comprehensive literature questioning such ideas that has been published since the late 1980s. Instead of being steadily transformed towards more desert-like conditions through increasing population pressure, Sahelian environments are dominated by climatic fluctuations. This article first reviews the literature criticizing the idea of `desertification' as it is applied on African drylands. Then, the article critically discusses the use of the Tuareg rebellion in northern Mali as an example of a supply-induced scarcity related conflict. The case study shows that the droughts of the 1970s and 1980s played a role in the rebellion, but the rebellion was not driven by supply-induced scarcity. Instead, the droughts led to the migration of young men to Algeria and Libya, where they were exposed to revolutionary discourses. There was already a strong feeling among nomads and Tuareg in Mali of being marginalized by state policies of modernization and sedentarization. Embezzlement of drought relief funds by government officials in Bamako added further to the anger felt by the young men who took up arms against the Malian state. The drought of the 1970s and 1980s was probably not a necessary condition for the rebellion to take place. Detailed case studies of armed conflicts, engaging with environmental research, may be necessary to further deepen our understanding of links, or lack of such links, between violence and environmental stress.