Oil and the Probability of Rebel Participation Among Youths in the Niger Delta of Nigeria

This article attempts to explain the determinants of the probability of willingness to join rebel groups by youths in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria, using primary data from a sample of 1,337 individuals drawn from 18 communities. A cardinal objective is to test the theoretical explanations of the motivation for rebellion in resource-based societies and to examine the kind of factors that present rebel opportunity. Fifteen variables are used to reflect motives and opportunity for rebellion, and a logit regression model is employed to estimate the probability of willingness to participate. While grievance appears to be pervasive among individuals- and is systemically explained by the data, it is not seen to have high statistical effect on the probability of having a disposition to rebel participation. Rather, individual-and community-level factors that reduce the opportunity cost and risk of participation, or increase the perceived benefits, appear to be more important. The findings suggest that strategies to achieve long-lasting civil peace in Nigeria's Delta must go beyond grievance to address individual-level factors that determine the opportunity cost of participation in violence, such as low income level and low educational attainment, and community-level factors that create an opportunity to profit from extreme forms of civil disobedience, such as low infrastructure. Some of these strategies choices are found also to have the potential to address grievance.