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Uncertainty of the Liberal Peace

Author

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  • Cullen F. Goenner

    (Department of Economics, University of North Dakota)

Abstract

Variable selection is a crucial aspect of formulating a model to empirically examine data, as omitted variables can create spurious association, while inclusion of irrelevant variables can bias the results of one’s estimates. To mitigate such problems, researchers rely on theory to guide their selection of variables to include in their models. Unfortunately, in social science, there often exist several plausible theories to explain actions, and hence several models that researchers can use in their empirical work. This lack of unique theory is evident in examining trade’s effect on conflict, as there are three main theories on this and each suggests a different effect for trade interdependence on conflict. Empirically, the effect of trade on conflict remains uncertain, as researchers Barbieri and Oneal & Russett have come to disparate conclusions using different measures of trade interdependence (models). Each of their inferences is based on the belief that the variables they select form the ‘true’ model that generates the data. The problem is that theory is unable to indicate whether one model is more appropriate than another, which creates uncertainty over the empirical effects of trade on conflict. To account for uncertainty in model selection, the author allows for several models by applying Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to the study of conflict. Accounting for this uncertainty, he finds that trade interdependence does not have a significant effect on the prediction of militarized conflict, whereas joint democracy continues to reduce conflict.

Suggested Citation

  • Cullen F. Goenner, 2004. "Uncertainty of the Liberal Peace," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 41(5), pages 589-605, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:joupea:v:41:y:2004:i:5:p:589-605
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    Cited by:

    1. Hyung Min Kim, 2009. "Determinants of the Onset of Militarized Conflicts," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 12(2), pages 39-59, September.
    2. Cullen F. Goenner, 2013. "Mission accomplished: A reply to Reuveny and Keshk," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 30(1), pages 19-23, February.
    3. Alexander Jelloian, 2023. "The relationship between economic freedom and peace," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(2), pages 229-244, June.
    4. Christos Kollias & Suzanna-Maria Paleologou, 2017. "The Globalization and Peace Nexus: Findings Using Two Composite Indices," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 131(3), pages 871-885, April.
    5. Sambuddha Ghatak & Aaron Gold & Brandon C Prins, 2017. "External threat and the limits of democratic pacifism," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 34(2), pages 141-159, March.
    6. Cullen F Goenner, 2010. "From toys to warships: Interdependence and the effects of disaggregated trade on militarized disputes," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 47(5), pages 547-559, September.
    7. Rafael Reuveny & Omar M. G. Keshk, 2013. "Reconsidering trade and conflict simultaneity: The risk of emphasizing technique over substance," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 30(1), pages 11-18, February.
    8. Omar M.G. Keshk & Rafael Reuveny & Brian M. Pollins, 2010. "Trade and Conflict: Proximity, Country Size, and Measures," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 27(1), pages 3-27, February.
    9. Hailay Gebretinsae Beyene, 2015. "Does International Trade Reduce Political Disputes?," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 50(2), pages 99-117, May.
    10. Cullen F. Goenner, 2007. "Economic War and Democratic Peace," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 24(3), pages 171-182, July.
    11. Celeste Beesley & Scott Cooper, 2023. "Micro-foundations of the commercial peace: The effect of net exports on Ukrainian attitudes towards war with Russia," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 60(6), pages 951-967, November.
    12. Cullen F. Goenner, 2011. "Simultaneity between Trade and Conflict: Endogenous Instruments of Mass Destruction," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 28(5), pages 459-477, November.

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