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Measuring Interdependence and Its Pacific Benefits: A Reply to Gartzke & Li

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  • John R. Oneal

Abstract

Gartzke & Li’s ‘Measure for Measure’ usefully clarifies the mathematical relationships linking trade dependence , openness , and trade share . Oneal and Gartzke & Li agree on allmajor points: (1) high trade dependence , indicated by the lower bilateral trade-to-GDP ratio in each dyad, reduces the likelihood of violent interstate conflict; (2) openness , measured by the total trade-to-GDP ratio for the same state, also has important pacific benefits; and (3) trade share , the ratio of bilateral to total trade, is not a good measure of economic interdependence, because it does not capture the economic (and hence political) importance of states’ bilateral trade. The substantive benefits of both trade dependence and openness can easily be shown. Oneal analyzes militarized interstate disputes using the best available data for trade and conflict and controls for duration dependence. With all dyads included, a one standard-deviation increase in dependence lowers the risk of a fatal dispute by 62%; such an increase in openness reduces it by 25%. These results are consistent with more than 30 published or forthcoming studies that show that economic interdependence reduces the likelihood of interstate conflict.

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  • John R. Oneal, 2003. "Measuring Interdependence and Its Pacific Benefits: A Reply to Gartzke & Li," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 40(6), pages 721-725, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:joupea:v:40:y:2003:i:6:p:721-725
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    Cited by:

    1. Erich Weede, 2011. "The Capitalist Peace," Chapters, in: Christopher J. Coyne & Rachel L. Mathers (ed.), The Handbook on the Political Economy of War, chapter 14, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Weede Erich, 2006. "Globale Ordnungspolitik im Zeitalter amerikanischer Hegemonie: Kritische Anmerkungen dazu, wie man Demokratie und Kapitalismus nicht verbreiten kann / Global Order in the Era of American Hegemony," ORDO. Jahrbuch für die Ordnung von Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft, De Gruyter, vol. 57(1), pages 371-392, January.
    3. Christopher J. Coyne & Anne R. Bradley, 2019. "Ludwig von Mises on war and the economy," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 32(3), pages 215-228, September.

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