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The Geography of Civil War

Author

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  • HALVARD BUHAUG

    (Department of Sociology and Political Science, Norwegian University of Science & Technology (NTNU) & International Peace Research Institute, Oslo (PRIO))

  • SCOTT GATES

    (Department of Political Science, Michigan State University & International Peace Research Institute, Oslo (PRIO))

Abstract

Geographical factors play a critical role in determining how a civil war is fought and who will prevail. Drawing on the PRIO/Uppsala Armed Conflict dataset covering the period 1946-2000, the authors have determined the location of all battle-zones for all civil wars in this time period, thereby identifying the geographic extent and the center point of each conflict. Using ordinary least squares (OLS) and three-stage least squares (3SLS) estimation techniques, factors are analyzed that determine the scope of the conflict (area of the conflict zone) and the location of the conflict relative to the capital. It is found that in addition to geographical factors such as the total land area of the country, scope is strongly shaped by such factors as the adjacencies of a border of a neighboring country, the incidence of natural resources in the conflict zone, and the duration of the conflict. The distance of the conflict zone from the capital is influenced by the scope of the conflict, the size of the country, whether or not the objective of the rebels is to secede, and whether or not the rebel group has a religious or ethnic identity. Also, evidence is found of an endogenous relationship between scope and location.

Suggested Citation

  • Halvard Buhaug & Scott Gates, 2002. "The Geography of Civil War," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 39(4), pages 417-433, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:joupea:v:39:y:2002:i:4:p:417-433
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Christopher Blattman, 2009. "Civil War: A Review of Fifty Years of Research," Working Papers id:2231, eSocialSciences.
    2. David Siroky & Valery Dzutsati, 2015. "The Empire Strikes Back: Ethnicity, Terrain, and Indiscriminate Violence in Counterinsurgencies," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 96(3), pages 807-829, September.
    3. Bakaki Zorzeta, 2016. "Fossil Fuel Rents: Who Initiates International Crises?," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 22(2), pages 173-190, April.
    4. Ravi Bhavnani & Dan Miodownik & Jonas Nart, 2008. "REsCape: an Agent-Based Framework for Modeling Resources, Ethnicity, and Conflict," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 11(2), pages 1-7.
    5. Caroline T Witte & Martijn J Burger & Elena I Ianchovichina & Enrico Pennings, 2017. "Dodging bullets: The heterogeneous effect of political violence on greenfield FDI," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 48(7), pages 862-892, September.
    6. Christopher Blattman & Edward Miguel, 2010. "Civil War," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-57, March.
    7. Nakao, Keisuke, 2013. "How Rebellion Expands? From Periphery to Heartland," MPRA Paper 50546, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Camilo Echandía Castilla & Irene Cabrera Nossa, 2017. "Madurez para la paz. Evolución de la territorialidad y las estrategias en el conflicto armado colombiano," Books, Universidad Externado de Colombia, Facultad de Finanzas, Gobierno y Relaciones Internacionales, number 116, April.
    9. Ostby, Gudrun, 2007. "Horizontal inequalities, political environment, and civil conflict : evidence from 55 developing countries, 1986-2003," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4193, The World Bank.
    10. J. M. Quinn, 2015. "Territorial contestation and repressive violence in civil war," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(5), pages 536-554, October.
    11. De Juan, Alexander & Bank, André, 2013. "The Effects of Regime Cooptation on the Geographical Distribution of Violence: Evidence from the Syrian Civil War," GIGA Working Papers 222, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies.
    12. Paul Bezerra & Alex Braithwaite, 2016. "Locating foreign aid commitments in response to political violence," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 169(3), pages 333-355, December.
    13. S. Mansoob Murshed & Scott Gates, 2005. "Spatial–Horizontal Inequality and the Maoist Insurgency in Nepal," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 121-134, February.
    14. Deeptha Wijerathna & Jayatilleke S. Bandara & Christine Smith & Athula Naranpanawa, 2014. "Regional disparities in Sri Lanka: an empirical analysis," Asia-Pacific Development Journal, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), vol. 21(2), pages 77-102, December.
    15. Mansoob Murshed & Scott Gates, 2004. "Spatial Horizontal Inequality and the Maoist Insurgency in Nepal," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2004-43, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    16. Christine S. Mele & David A. Siegel, 2019. "Identifiability, state repression, and the onset of ethnic conflict," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 181(3), pages 399-422, December.
    17. Li Dai & Lorraine Eden & Paul W. Beamish, 2017. "Caught in the crossfire: Dimensions of vulnerability and foreign multinationals' exit from war-afflicted countries," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(7), pages 1478-1498, July.
    18. Yuri M. Zhukov & Charles H. Anderton & Jurgen Brauer, "undated". "On the Logistics of Violence," Working Paper 255276, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    19. de Juan, Alexander, 2012. "Mapping Political Violence – The Approaches and Conceptual Challenges of Subnational Geospatial Analyses of Intrastate Conflict," GIGA Working Papers 211, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies.
    20. Martínez, Luis R., 2017. "Transnational insurgents: Evidence from Colombia's FARC at the border with Chávez's Venezuela," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 138-153.

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