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Strategic Rivalries, Protracted Conflict, and Crisis Escalation

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  • MICHAEL COLARESI

    (Department of Political Science, Indiana University mcolares@indiana.edu)

  • WILLIAM R. THOMPSON

    (Department of Political Science, Indiana University wthompso@indiana.edu)

Abstract

Underlying the emerging interest in the role of rivalry processes as antecedents to interstate conflict is the simple idea that conflict within the constraints of rivalry works differently than conflict outside of rivalry. In this article, we inspect the concepts of protracted conflict, as developed within the International Crisis Behavior (ICB) project, and rivalry, and discuss some of their applications to crisis escalation. The protracted conflict and rivalry concepts are not identical, but they do overlap in terms of their emphases on historical context, serious goal incompatibilities, and stakes that might be resolved coercively. Developing an argument for the concept of rivalry possessing fewer limitations than protracted conflict, we proceed to analyze and test the interaction between rivalry and other variables, again making use of an ICB escalation model, when predicting crisis escalation to war. Throughout, our basic question concerns what role interstate rivalry plays in crisis behavior. Are the crises of rivals more lethal than those of non-rivals? If so, can we pinpoint why that is the case? We find that rivalry not only makes escalation more likely, but also significantly interacts with more traditional predictors of conflict, such as capability ratios, the number of actors in a crisis, democracy, and the issues under contention.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Colaresi & William R. Thompson, 2002. "Strategic Rivalries, Protracted Conflict, and Crisis Escalation," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 39(3), pages 263-287, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:joupea:v:39:y:2002:i:3:p:263-287
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    Cited by:

    1. Gary Uzonyi & Toby Rider, 2017. "Determinants of Foreign Aid: Rivalry and Domestic Instability," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(2), pages 272-299, March.
    2. Virginie Grzelczyk, 2019. "Threading on thin ice? Conflict dynamics on the Korean Peninsula," Asia Europe Journal, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 31-45, March.
    3. Yasemin Akbaba & Patrick James & Zeynep Taydas, 2006. "One-Sided Crises in World Politics: A Study of Oxymoron, Violence and Outcomes," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(3), pages 229-260, September.
    4. Michal Smetana & Jan Ludvík, 2019. "Between war and peace: a dynamic reconceptualization of “frozen conflicts”," Asia Europe Journal, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 1-14, March.

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