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Hurting Stalemate or Mediation? The Conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, 1990-95

Author

Listed:
  • Moorad Mooradian
  • Daniel Druckman

    (Institute for Conflict Analysis and Resolution, George Mason University)

Abstract

The impacts of six attempts to mediate the conflict over the political status of Nagorno-Karabakh in the Caucasus region of the former Soviet Union were compared. Each mediation was intended to get the direct parties - Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Nagorno-Karabakh - to the negotiating table. Nearly 4,000 events were recorded for a six-year period from 1990 through 1995. Each event was coded in terms of a six-step scale ranging from a significant action toward peace (+3) to substantial violence directed at an adversary (-3). Time-series analyses of changes in the extent of violence showed no change from before to after any of the mediations. A significant change did occur, however, between the months preceding and following the period of intensive combat between April 1993 and February 1994. These results support the hypothesis that a mutually hurting stalemate is a condition for negotiating a ceasefire and reduced violence between warring parties. A number of theoretical and practical implications of the findings are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Moorad Mooradian & Daniel Druckman, 1999. "Hurting Stalemate or Mediation? The Conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, 1990-95," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 36(6), pages 709-727, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:joupea:v:36:y:1999:i:6:p:709-727
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    Cited by:

    1. Arnaud Stimec & Patrice Guillotreau & Jean Poitras, 2011. "Ripeness and Grief in Conflict Analysis," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 20(4), pages 489-507, July.

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