Creating the `Ripe Moment' in the East Timor Conflict

Analyzing the East Timor conflict by way of applying William Zartman's notion of `ripeness' and John Burton's `basic human needs' not only proves indispensable for pointing out the personalities, forces and dynamics that might contribute to a negotiated outcome of the East Timor conflict, but also to how these notions might be applied to intractable conflicts more generally. This paper argues that a means of breaking out of the present impasse in negotiations concerning the East Timor conflict is to create what Zartman calls the `ripe moment'. It is argued that the missing ingredient for the `ripe moment' in the case of East Timor is what Zartman calls a `formula for a way out'. Central in the development of such a formula is that parties build upon `basic needs' which they mutually recognize - `Type 1 needs' - and defer to a later stage of negotiations those `basic needs' where disagreement is found - `Type needs'. After criticizing Burton's notion of basic needs and the distinction intended to deal with the criticism of Burton's theory, it is argued that the likely initiators of the `formula for the way out' in the case of the East Timor conflict are what are referred to as pro-autonomy East Timorese. The significance of developing such a formula lies in its potential to become a focus of negotiations between the Indonesian government and representatives of pro-autonomy East Timorese - negotiations that are supported by the international community and expatriate East Timorese political organizations.