Ethnicity, Territorial Integrity, and Regional Order: Palestinian Identity in Jordan and Israel

Will Israel and Jordan be likely to stave off Palestinian irredentism from the recently established Palestinian Authority? Will transnational Palestinian identity undermine a future regional order based on partition into sovereign territorial states? These questions may be crucial in determining whether the emerging repartition of Palestine/Israel and the creation of the Palestinian Authority in the aftermath of the Oslo peace agreement will be the culminating stage of a long process of transformation from a multinational Ottoman Empire into a stable territorial state system or the beginning of a new wave of instability and renewed division in the region. The article explores these questions by comparatively analyzing attitudinal studies of Palestinian citizens of Israel and Jordan towards their respective states, the other community, and the peace process to gauge the dangers of secessionism or irredentism of these two groups and their likely impact on regional order in the Middle East. The analysis is framed within the primordial-cultural/instrumental-rational actor debate. The willingness of these two groups to compromise primordial sentiment and preserve the territorial integrity of Israel and Jordan, and the fact that each group prefers a slightly different political outcome that conforms with their respective material interests seems to confirm the rational-actor approach, the viability of the partition approach between Israel and the Palestinian Authority, the low probability of secessionism on the part of these two groups, and the low probability of responding to irredentist pressures should the future Palestinian entity exert them.