Theory-Building in the Study of Crises

Research about military-security crises has traditionally been pursued within separate fields of inquiry involving diverse theoretical approaches. It is therefore most welcome that two recent studies attempt to integrate the various aspects and approaches. Brecher presents comprehensive models of interstate crises, covering onset, escalation, de-escalation, and impact. These models, which include a large set of variables, are tested with aggregate data and further analyzed through case studies. Richardson examines the extent to which the outcome of a crisis depends on structural factors versus decisions and interactions. A wide range of theories are assessed through careful analysis of a small number of major power crises. This review discusses how the studies are related to three strategies for integrating theoretical approaches: (1) solution of puzzles, (2) use of several levels of analysis, and (3) conceptualization of conflict as a stage process. Specific contributions of the studies to theory-building are most easily discernible within the puzzle-solving strategy. However, by employing research designs which emphasize different levels of analysis (both studies) and crisis phases (Brecher), the authors provide fruitful suggestions for the long-term development of integrated approaches and general theories.