Armed Conflict at the End of the Cold War, 1989-92

Predictions for the post-Cold War era have varied from visions of a world in which war had become obsolete to one racked by ethnic and nationalist violence. This article reports data on three levels of armed conflict for the period 1989-92 and makes a first analysis of them. So far, neither the most pessimistic nor the most optimistic predictions are borne out. The number of armed conflicts has increased somewhat, but this is mainly due to an increase in minor armed conflicts, particularly from 1991 to 1992. Wars (involving more than 1000 deaths in a single year) and intermediate conflicts show little change over time. Analyzed by region Europe increasingly has become an arena for armed conflict while in Central and South America the number of armed conflicts was reduced during the four-year period. In Africa and Asia there was little change and in North America no armed conflict at all during this period. The ending of the Cold War has permitted conflicts to reemerge which had been suppressed rather than resolved. At the same time, the end of superpower rivalry has improved the conditions for containing and resolving conflicts and preventing their escalation. To date these two forces have kept each other in check.