The New Russian Diaspora: Minority Protection in the Soviet Successor States

The dissolution of the Soviet Union has transformed the 25 million ethnic Russians living outside the Russian Federation into a new Russian diaspora. This situation represents a potential threat to political stability among and within the Soviet successor states. Right-wing political groups in Russia pose as defenders of the national rights of the diaspora. If they were able to induce the Russian Army to intervene in the non-Russian states on behalf of the diaspora, a situation dangerously similar to the Yugoslav conflict could arise. The problem of the diaspora can be neutralized through migration, border regulations and/or the establishment of regimes for minority rights. The stabilizing/destabilizing potential of each of these options is evaluated here with reference to the recent post-Soviet debate on the issue. It is argued that large-scale migration aimed at creating optimally `pure' ethnic nation-states may easily unleash uncontrollable chain reactions. Most non-Russian successor states are categorically opposed to border regulations; many Russian politicians have qualms as well. They are, inter alia, afraid that if the principle of the popular will is used to determine territorial issues, it might lead to a dismantling of the multi-ethnic Russian Federation. The least destabilizing option seems to be minority protection. The West could contribute to a viable human rights regime in the CIS by applying a differentiated trade and aid policy and giving the respective governments material incentives to respect the rights of the minorities. In any case, the leadership in the non-Russian successor states should, in their own interest, avoid providing the irredentist parties in Russian politics with arguments and sympathizers.