After the Shooting Stops: Insights on Postwar Economic Growth

Most studies in peace research consider only the conditions preceding war, with little attention to the outcomes of war beyond how long it lasted, how many people were killed, or which state was victorious. This article reviews the research that has been done on postwar economic growth. We first outline two competing theoretical perspectives on the intrinsic effects of war on economic growth. A review of case studies of the World Wars and broader, cross-sectional studies follows. Generally, it is found that the immediate economic effects are negative; the long-term impact of war and the utility of external aid are uncertain. The impact of war seemed to be less intrinsic than it was conditioned by the policies pursued after the war. Generally, policies designed to restructure the domestic and international economies and promote international trade were successful in promoting postwar recovery. In the concluding section, we offer a number of suggestions for future research. These include a broader spatial-temporal domain for studies of war and economic growth and a consideration of microeconomic effects. Scholars are encouraged to consider three sets of variables in seeking to account for the wide variety of postwar economic experiences likely to be encountered in a broad-based study: characteristics of the war itself, characteristics of the state under scrutiny, and variations in postwar policy pursued by the state and the international community.